"It ain't over till the fat lady sings" goes the old saw about how long an opera lasts. We are now in the very first minutes of the GOP soap opera, and half of the punditry is looking for the exits. Most of them are putting a dress on Mitt, though in reality Newt fits the bill better. Seriously - it this over or only just beginning?

Mitt is the dominant force so far even though he consistently polls at 25%. That would indicate that 75% of the GOP voters would prefer someone else. That is also borne out in the frantic game of whack-a-mole being played as challengers to Romney are give their fifteen minutes of fame. A smaller field would be a problem for Romney, as conservatives coalesce around the alternative choice.

For Mitt to lock this up, he would need to take not only Iowa and New Hampshire (done), but South Carolina (which is Perry country, and Newt is expected to do well) and Florida (which will feed off of the South Carolina results). Then comes Super Tuesday, which will distribute victories to anyone left standing. The truth is that Mitt, Newt, Perry and probably Santorum will all remain viable until well into February. As to the rest, they will be gone by then - except for Ron Paul who will stick it out just to be a thorn in the side of the rest of the candidates.

So if the electoral map doesn't sort this out early, do the candidates? Mitt is the guy we came to the dance with. He's the next guy in line, and the GOP has a long tradition of giving the next guy the job. The problem this time is that the GOP voters are looking for love and not feeling it. If Mitt is going to take this, and he can't win fast, he has to win long. The long strategy doesn't work well for him though because as candidates drop off, the race will come down to a two-man - Romney and the not-Romney. We believe that the not-Romney wins this battle.

So who is the not-Romney? Newt? We've heard a word associated with Newt - mercurial, which is a nice way of saying all over the place. The electorate tends to prefer a President with a stable public temperament (Remember how McCain tanked his campaign in 2008 by running across the country in a panic after the economic meltdown?).

Newt has a brilliant mind filled with thousands of solutions that he would like to try - as President. By definition, one who sees the solutions coming from DC is a big government guy. The electorate is coming at it from the opposite direction - restoration of a limited and smaller government. Newt will keep the pressure on Mitt for as long as he can stay in the race, and it will be entertaining, but he's not the guy. We would like to see him in the administration though - maybe as Chief-of-Staff.

Rick Santorum has been impressive. He has a great depth of knowledge, and is the most reliably conservative candidate. Beyond that he has held onto his humility throughout this process, which speaks volumes for his character, but has probably hamstrung his campaign. Politics is not a place for gentlemen. We believe that he would be an excellent President. We don't think that his core principles will allow him to do what is necessary to get elected, and that is a shame for the country.He would be an excellent VP choice.

That leaves the other Rick - Perry. He came in on a whirlwind that dropped out underneath him. It dropped out because he was woefully unprepared when he entered the race. A big pile of cash won't guarantee a nomination - just ask Hillary. Anyone who knows him will tell you that Rick Perry doesn't lose elections. He has staked his campaign on South Carolina, and has been preparing, educating himself and planning the rest of the campaign. His stump speeches are inspiring, and he didn't flame out in the NH debates.

Perry has fielded a tax reform plan that is workable. He has an economic track record as chief executive. He is governor of a large state and has been reelected twice. That would argue for him being a successful governor. He has evolved over the years into a solid conservative. If he hadn't stumbled coming out the gate, he was the logical choice for the not-Romney. He still is best positioned to take on that role. He will be better prepared this time.

Common Sense Dictates

We at TPP conclude that the fat lady is not even rehearsing yet. We also conclude that the longer this race goes on, there is more probability that Mitt Romney will not be the nominee. As the not-Romneys fall by the wayside the remaining not-Romney will gain the support of their voters. We see a repeat of Reagan / Bush in 1980.

There has been a call for the conservative candidates to pick among themselves who the not-Romney will be. We find that to be a bad idea. The process is doing what it is supposed to do - build stronger candidates for the general election. If our candidates can't handle the nomination process, they will never survive what President Obama lets loose on them. The nomination is not a gift. It must be earned.

That said, If Mitt does come out on top, there is consensus on staff that we will support him. The country can't afford four more years of Obama. So says common sense.

RLB