Recrunching The Numbers
We're sensing a bit of theater again - this time over the drama enfolding over the Super Committee. In the words of Shakespeare, it is "full of sound and fury", signifying nothing. Remember the last budget deal? We took a hard look in Crunching The Numbers . Our conclusions are being borne out. The debt limit was raised, and there were no real budget cuts achieved in return. Our credit rating was downgraded. We are now $15 trillion in debt and pushing at the raised debt ceiling already.
The Super Committee was tasked with finding $1.6 trillion in cuts. Not bad you say, that's 10%. Then there is the fine print. That $1.6 trillion is spread over 10 years, so we're really talking $160 billion per year. Let's re-run the numbers that we applied to the budget deal to this proposal and see what we come up with.
Just for fun, let's do the rest of the chart. You can refer back to "Crunching the Numbers" for the specifics of the math. It's pretty simple. Take the budget number and in this case, subtract $160 billion. Then add 7% to come up with next year's budget number. Repeat until your mind explodes.
Year Budget After Cuts Result
2102 $3.5 trillion no cuts $3.5 trillion
2013 $3.745 trillion $160 billion $3.585 trillion
2014 $3.996 trillion $160 billion $3.836 trillion
2015 $4.105 trillion $160 billion $3.944 trillion
2016 $4.220 trillion $160 billion $4.060 trillion
2017 $4.344 trillion $160 billion $4.184 trillion
2018 $4.477 trillion $160 billion $4.317 trillion
2019 $4.619 trillion $160 billion $4.459 trillion
2020 $4.771 trillion $160 billion $4.611 trillion
2021 $4.934 trillion $160 billion $4.934 trillion
We will be adding nearly $1.5 trillion to the budget - sadly that's not a big number anymore. There are no cuts. These estimates are especially generous as they assume that the annual $160 billion is trimmed off of the actual budgetary number and not the current CBO projected numbers.
The increases occur because of a law enacted in 1974 that calls for "baseline budgeting". Baseline budgeting assumes the current budget item will be funded at $100% regardless as to how much money has actually been spent. Then it adds a percentage onto the budget to account for inflation and increased demand for that service / department / procurement. The percentage has historically worked out to about 7% annually. This was done to allow for projections of what revenues would be required to fund future government obligations. This is also the law that gave us the CBO.
But wait, there's more. On that first budget number, $3.5 trillion, we only generate $1.9 billion in taxes. We borrow $1.6 trillion. We borrow it mostly from the Federal Reserve, which charges us interest, and prints currency when it runs out, generating inflation. The rest comes from hitting up China (about $800 billion), Japan (about the same), and such world powers as India, Korea, and really, whoever offers it to us.
Let's say that the tax rates remain flat. Until the unemployment numbers improve and we bring more taxpayers into the fold, that is what will happen. What does this steady budget growth do to our national debt? Just in principal alone we are adding $9.445 trillion - added onto the $ 15 trillion that we already owe, we're talking $24.445 trillion. It's a tiny bit better than the last deal, but still a suicide pact. Feeling queasy yet?
So taxes will need to be raised. We hate to tell you this kiddies, but they've already thought of that. The CBO projections (which come up with much friendlier numbers than I have) ASSUME that the Bush tax rates will expire in 2013 - not on the rich. On Everyone. Bill Gates, me, you and the guy driving the forklift at Walmart. There's a surprise on every page of the budget deal.
Effectively we have nearly doubled the national budget and brought the national debt just south of $25 trillion. The Super Committee is not cutting spending. It's all smoke and mirrors boys and girls. Nothing has changed, we just get to watch a really exciting soap opera for a couple of weeks. Boehner could just drop our drawers and ask us to bend over for all of the good his Super Committee will do for us.
Now for the capper - no Congress is bound by the acts of a previous Congress. This Super Committe deal only survives for the duration of this sitting Congress. When the next Congress is seated in 2013, they are under no obligation to honor this deal. Every number projection past 2013 is as substantive as pixie dust. We are reporting on what the Super Committee is proposing, which is nothing. It can get far worse in 2013.
It's not that there aren't plans out there that actually would do something constructive. Cut, Cap and Balance looks good. We've already endorsed Connie Mack's Penny Plan. It seems that the problem is what it always has been. Career politicians toting water for special interests, and spending all of their time figuring out how to keep their office.
As disclosure, I rounded off everything in dollars below billions. Less than 5 rounded down, greater than 5 rounded up. The math isn't all that hard. You would think the geniuses in DC could have figured this out. Well, they did figure it out. You've been lied to America. Don't forget today come election day 2012. Next time maybe they will kiss us first.
RLB

Like I said...we the working class in this country needs to go on strike...let's protest by not paying our taxes...you reckon those asses in Washington would listen then? I'm sick of them cutting everything we depend on EXCEPT WASTE OR PAYOFFS TO THE SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS OR THEIR POLITICAL DONORS OR FOREIGN AID TO COUNTRIES THAT HATE US! IT IS OUR MONEY! LET'S STOP THEM FROM WASTING IT BY NOT GIVING IT TO THEM!
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you are not wrong! Super Committee is for super crooks!
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The con artists in Congress are at it again.
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Of course! And anyone who didn't realize, at the time those folks were appointed, that they wouldn't BE debating, deciding, or proposing anything was not paying attention. Obammer has decided what HE wants.
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They're not crunching anything. They'll emerge from their tea & crumpets or champagne lunch w/ marching orders given to them by bammer before they were behind closed doors.
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It's nice of you to acknowledge that the GOP isn't doing anything useful, and not just picking on the Democrats.
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That'show you can tell a politician is lying - his lips are moving. Throw the bums out.
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The prostitutes just can't let go of the cash!
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The SC is a farce, perfect example of Congress in a state of dysfunction.
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I blame the failure of the Congressional Super-Committee on Congressional Lex Luthor and his never-ending supply of Congressional Kryptonite.
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Our Obama will "ask" for another 1500 billion debt ceiling increase this week,
but it is a formality--
it was part of the August sell out that Republicans did
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