Out, Standing In The Field
The field is locked up now. Christie and Palin are sitting it out. There's no one left to get in that anyone cares about. Truth be told, it's a good field - no one is perfect, but they all would be doing better than the current pretender-in-chief. Let's do one more once over, and then have fun with a bold suggestion.
Romney is having trouble making the sale, even though he's the smoothest candidate. That is his problem - too smooth by a half. He's been at this so long that not much rattles his cage. If the primaries are a courtship, he is the fellow we arrived at the prom with. The trouble is that we can't shake the feeling that he's more interested in getting into our prom dress than dancing. We're not sure, we just have an odd feeling, and it isn't love.
Perry came back to earth fast. He spent a week at the top and now the luster is off. A lot of that can be attributed to him being the new guy, and just not up to speed yet, but he hasn't caught fire like his supporters wanted.
Herman Cain has profited greatly, at least for this news cycle. He won the Florida straw poll, and some early wins were the criteria that we put out there for whether his candidacy would fly. More good news - In a CBS poll released today, the Hermanator is tied with Romney at 17% leading the field. Perry comes in at 12% - the rest of the pack is in single digits. Perry proves that a poll is just a snapshot though, not a truth.
The rest of the pack, well, no one cares anymore. Bachmann flamed out. Gingrich and Santorum are knowledgable and well versed in the issues, but lack a fired up following. Ron Paul has the passionate followers, but he scares the GOP rank and file. He would do better running as the Libertarian that he is. We still want him chairing a Presidential commission investigating the Fed. Huntsman is running in the wrong party - he should be challenging Obama for the Dem nod. He would probably get more votes that way.
The stragglers will drop off one by one, and eventually we will have a final four. We hope that happens after a few actual primaries, if only for the surprises that can jump out of a larger crop of candidates. Our picks for the final four remain the same as it was the last time we came up with it - Romney, Perry, Cain and either Gingrich or Santorum. Probably Gingrich he wants it more.
We want to apply some creative thinking for the GOP now, because it all boils down to who can beat Obama. The GOP has a horrible habit of picking the "next guy" in line. It's why the frontrunner is Romney. It is a nice concept, but a losing one. The GOP field is littered with the failed campaigns of next guys in line - McCain, Dole, Nixon in 1960, Dewey... Bush 41, the" next guy" in 1988 beat the curse, but that was because of Reagan more than Bush. The GOP wins on candidates that aren't the next guy in line. Eisenhower, Nixon in 1968, Reagan, and Bush 43. We would do better in the general to avoid Romney, though if he gets the nod, I will support him.
Conventional wisdom doesn't work well for the GOP either. Conventional wisdom has the "reaching across the aisle" candidate favored in the general. The voting public rewards plain speakers who do what they say they are going to do. That works for both parties, and the independents as well. Reagan, Kennedy, Eisenhower, Truman.You can go back in the GOP as far as Lincoln. It's why Obama is in trouble now. He has become, in Shakespeare's words "a tale of sound and fury, signifying nothing".
What is the Dream Team for the GOP? This is NOT an endorsement, just a suggestion that will provide some new thinking for a win in 2012 - Cain / Gingrich. Ok, pick up your jaws and I'll explain.
Every time Obama is not supported by the opposition, the racism charge flies (just ask Rick Perry...) - this makes it moot. We put our black guy up against their black (well, semi-black) guy and may the better man win. We like those odds. Cain has come up the hard way, and has succeeded at every career he has taken on. In stellar terms. It is a stark contrast to Obama - who more and more seems like he has been handed everything he has, and acts the petulant child when he doesn't get his way.
Cain is a man of ideas, as opposed to Obama who seems to be a man looking for ideas. Cain leads, and not from behind. Cain understands the private sector, Obama not so much. Cain can be eloquent on the fly, Obama crashes and burns without the teleprompter.
Cain's biggest drawback is his lack of government experience. That can be argued two ways. First, government experience hasn't fixed anything, ever. Second, that's what Newt is there for. It can be argued that Newt Gingrich understands how to move legislation better than anyone else alive on the planet. It is what Biden was supposed to do for Obama, except he's Joe Biden...
Again, we want to stress, this is not an endorsement, it's merely a suggestion to be mulled over by the electorate. It's not up to TPP, Common Sense Dictates, FoxNews, or CNN to pick the GOP nominee. It is up to the voter. We would like for the voter to not just accept the media template as they were forced to in 2008, when the choices were removed before a large swath of voters cast a ballot.
Ultimately, Herman Cain's fate lies with his ability to mount a successful campaign. That is the same rule for each of the remaining candidates. It doesn't take much to smoke a campaign anymore. Everyone has a digital video camera and a YouTube account. Our task here is to keep minds open to the possibilities that the rest of media fails to report. We don't need to just accept Romney or Perry or even Cain. We need to examine each of them and hopefully come up with a winner. America cannot afford four more years of Obama. So says Common Sense.
RLB
Categories: Presidential Campaign 2012, Partisan Politics, Civic Duty, political leadership, Historical perspective
Tags: political leadership Barack Obama Presidential Campaign 2012
I've been discussing a possible Cain / Gingrich ticket with some people and it seems to have a lot of potential support.
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Very good analysis, Robert. If Ron Paul doesn't make the field, Herman Cain is appealing. However, as a society, we are obsessed with personality and NOT ideas. I tend to vote for the ideas/philosophy of a person instead of the "celeb". The average American falls.in love with a Candidate.
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I like the article. I ha ve some questions though
Do Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich still both live in Georgia? If so, one of them would have to move to have a Cain / Gingrich ticket.
Can Cain compete against Romney's money? Rumor has it that money is pouring into the Romney campaign now that Christie is out.
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According to Wikipedia, Cain and Gingrinch now live in different states (Cain/Georgia, and Gingrich/Virginia). I very much enjoyed reading this post also. My favorite part: If Herman Cain is the GOP nominee, our Race Card President will ...have to abandon his well-worn, standby strategy.
"While I don’t believe that Barack Obama used racial issues to get elected, I do believe that many of his supporters selectively use race to cover up some of his failures. Whenever President Obama is criticized over policy mistakes, his surrogates tend to play the race card, as if there’s supposed to be something inherently morally wrong in such criticism." — Herman Cain, writing in his new book, “This is Herman Cain!”
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I could go with Cain / Gingrich. Cain / Santorum would work too. I never really liked Romney, and Perry is starting to scare the hell out of me. It's like Bush Jr all over again. I'll be keeping a close eye on the remaining candidates.
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You want to put "our" black guy up againt "their semi-black" guy. That is such an out there racist comment. What do you think this is, a slave prize fight? I don't understand how the only people who don't see the racism in the tea party are the tea baggers.
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Valerie...it is not the author or the Tea Party who constantly point to racism every single time someone disagrees with the Grand High Exulted President Obama. Anyone with even a modicum of intelligence realizes that if Cain is in the race then the race card can't be played...not like it will stop the left from trying. I can assure you, I have heard NO ONE from the Tea Party refer to Herman Cain in terms of slavery. I find it interesting that the first person I've heard it from is apparently a liberal, judging from your bigoted "teabagger" reference. Yes..your comment is bigoted, and smacks of a level of intolerance that would give Torquemada (of the Spanish Inquisition) a big toothy smile.
What I don't understand is how people can defend Obama or his record. Finally the people who voted for him are waking up out of this trance they've been on for the past 3 years...I only hope its not too late. He has made every aspect of this country's economy worse. But keep drinking that Kool Aid. It comes in such pretty colors and tasty flavors doesn t it?? But, when all is said and done, it is still sugar water, and will eventually cause stuff to rot out of your head. I only wish that stuff were just your teeth...not your brains. Judging from your comments...it may already be too late.
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Who is valerie? Is she a nut? People are starting to seriously consider Herman Cain, and somehow its racist? I'm never going to understand that kind of thinking. Run Herman Run! You get the nomination and I'll be proud to vote for you!
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There's one more benefit in running Cain and winning. I'm from New York City, and in the days before Rudy, we had David Dinkins, New York's first black mayor. He screwed things up so badly that we may never have another black mayor. If we get a competent and successful black President to counter the current disaster, it will provide some real racial healing.
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I've been discussing the fact that Ron Paul is the only candidate that gives We The People a chance to start our own businesses, grow our own foods, and return to a Land of the Free and Home of the Brave with some folks.
That idea is really catchy these days.
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I absolutely love this and you know I have been on the Cain Train since the before he even announced
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Zogby is reporting that Herman is leading Perry AND Romney by 20%. In addition it shows him now leading Obama.
http://www.zogby.com/news/2011/10/06/ibope-zogby-poll-cain-expands-lead-over-gop-field-leads-obama-46-44/
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Gingrich and Santorum top 4? Musta got ahold of some bad weed. AINT gonna happen. Too many recall the hypocrisy of Gingrich, and Santorum is repuslive even to much of the REpublican rank and file.
About the only thing in the article I liked and half way agreed with, is that voters reward those who do what they say. By that measure, Ron Paul wins hands down. NO ONE has supporters who are enthusiastic AND informed as his. Given the increasingly obvious bias and dirty tricks used against him, the media may be ensuring what they hope to prevent, as they destroy their credibility.
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Glad to hear you agree that Cain is the man for the job. His lack of political experience is EXACTLY what makes him the right man for the job. I don't like Gingrich for V.P. though. If something bad happens to Cain, I don't want Newt in the office. How about Bolton as V.P.? He would give Cain a lot of help in the foreign policy dept.
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I saw where Cain won the Midwest straw poll over the weekend. Looks like Bachmann's candidacy is on life support. She has to do more than just win Iowa. I wish conservatives would give a different Rick some serious consideration. Santorum isn't the sexy pick, or the flavor of the week. He is the conservative. Many have said they were looking for, but for some reason. They look past him.
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Newt, Herm, & Rick are the only ones left on my short list. All of the rest are severely lacking...in so many ways.
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We have 100 years to secure, he will be president one day....
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