So political junkies - was this a wild enough weekend for you? Now that normal is setting in I feel a little hung-over. Lots of controversy at the Ames Straw Poll. Michelle Bachman edged out Ron Paul for the win. Ron Paul immediately cried foul - that Bachmann was busing in supporters and plying them with free food and entertainment. That is why we don't see Mr. Paul's candidacy going anywhere. If he wasn't prepared for this kind of thing in Iowa, he will get completely steamrolled by Obama when he pulls out all the stops to try to retain the White House.

Sarah showed up as did Huck. Cain performed well at the debate and helped himself. Newt won the debate hands down, but nobody cares. It doesn't matter if you are the smartest guy in the room if no one likes you. He and Jon Huntsman are the only two candidates on the GOP side that don't pass the "would have a beer with him test", which for some reason is an indicator of how well a candidate will do. Oh, and T-Paw was the first to see the handwriting on the wall and drop out. We wish him well.

What is that handwriting on the wall? Seems that everyone showed up except the man who made the most news this weekend - Rick Perry. If you have been off the planet and somehow missed the news, he declared on Straw Poll day. He even managed to come in 6th place overall, as a write in candidate. That's ahead of Mitt Romney, which is where the story lies.

We're not the first to report that this is now a two man race (sorry to the rest of the pack, but they are running for Vice President now...). We seldom rush out with a bare bones story just to be the first. We like to put a little meat on those bones. We see both contenders as strong candidates in their own right. We also see that they appeal to different factions wthin the GOP.

Romney's plusses are substantial. There is no doubt that he understands the economy and will be committed to growing it. He believes in a vigorous defense of the United States and it's interests. He will take on the Chinese in trade and defense matters. He is capable of leading. He looks Presidential. We can't actually visualize him passing the blame to someone else.

Romney has some serious baggage though. He appears squishy on a variety of social issues, and has Romneycare to contend with. He was Governor of Massachussetts - not exactly a hotbed of conservatism. He is one of the "rich". He has been a politician for a long time. He's got a misunderstood religion. And the killer negative - he appears to be a country club establishment Republican. 2012 is not going to be a good year for anything smelling of RINO. Romney is exactly the guy that Obama is running against right now.

Perry is the other guy. He's been defiant to Obama, and wants to get government out of people's way. He has a truly impressive economic record in Texas, creating more jobs there than anywhere else in the country. For awhile that was more jobs than the rest of the country combined. He's a believer in "State's Rights" as defined in the 10th Amendment to the U. S. Constitution. No doubt about him on strong defense, low taxes and repealing Obamacare either. He's got a Bill Clinton charm as well. Folksy with a sense of humor. Just no bimbo eruptions.

He's got his downers too - most of them are already hitting the media. In Texas, he is either loved or hated, and the haters are very loud. There are charges that he is squishy on immigration, on Muslims, and that his Texas miracle economy is overblown. A lot of these charges go away when hit with the facts, but not everyone can be persuaded by facts. There are those out there who just have a dislike for the guy.

The killer downer for Perry is that he is the Governor of Texas, which just sounds a litlle too much like George W Bush for some people. Especially when he talks, though he doesn't mangle sentences like W did. So far. He actually has an answer to people who ask him how he is different from Bush. He replies that Bush went to Yale, and he went to Texas A & M. The message is clear - I'm one of you, not one of them. All things added together, Perry is the exact opposite of who Obama is running against (not "rich", not establishment, no corporate jet...).

It doesn't hurt him any that the Perry's and the Bushes have a bit of a feud going on. Perry doesn't believe that Bush was conservative enough, and we share that opinion. Perry believes that Bush spent too much money - that opinion is borne out in the facts of the Bush Presidency as well. Perry mentioned that publicly with regard to the Bush governorship, and the Bushes replied in kind by supporting a primary challenge to Perry in 2010. Perry won. Matter of fact, he has never lost.

So if Perry is one of us, and Romney is one of those country club establishment Repblicans, where does that leave us? In a defining moment - a defining moment we have not had since 1980 when Ronald Reagan and George H W Bush were duking it out. Perception is everything in politics, which is why the spin-meisters hold so much sway. The perception now is the same as it was then. The plain spoken, likeable conservative vs the ivy-league conservative with a cred issue. It's going to be an interesting race to the convention.

As to the rest of the crowd, well, there's always a chance for someone to elbow these two out of the way, but it would have to be based on one of the two imploding. We see administration positions either way for several of them. Bachmann and Cain would both be excellent pprospects for VP. Either could burnish Romney's conservative cred. If the winner is Perry, that would favor Cain as a way to bring business experience into the White House.

Newt is not electable, but he knows how to get things done in congress. He'd make an excellent Chief-of-Staff. We could see Jon Huntsman as SecState (following policy, not making it). Our dirty little secret is a wish for a Presidential Commission to look at the Federal Reserve, closely - no one really knows what goes on in there. We think that the most effective guy to head that up would be Ron Paul.

There are other dribbles coming out. We have an inside source that says Paul Ryan is jumping in. Fox is reporting the same. There are a few others who may still go for the gold. We can't predict their effect on the race until it happens. To quote Don Rumsfeld - "there are things we know, and things we don't know; and things that we don't know that we don't know".  Eerie, but yes, true.

Of course, Sarah hasn't decided if she's in or out yet, so the game can change again. If she decides to opt out, it would be an historic opportunity to place her in a position that she has expertise on. We would nominate her to the position of Secretary of Energy, and then charge her with disbanding the department in an orderly fashion. The tasks currenty handled by the Energy Department were formerly handled by the Departments of Interior, State, Commerce and Defense. They still are. All that spews out of the Department of Energy is regulations. Their impotence was made known during the BP Gulf spill, and in the gasoline spike hikes. But that's a subject for another article.

About the only scenario that we don't see is Romney and Perry sharing the ticket. These are two alpha males and VP is not a job that would be easy for either to accept. This is where ego sometimes gets in the way. The two as running mates would compliment each other and provide a unity ticket for the GOP to get the various GOP factions in line. We just don't see it happening.

Common Sense Dictates

Common sense dictates nothing as we move into the silly season. We expect some surprises, and one by one the remaining field will drop away. Until we are down to Romney and Perry. We will arrive at our defining moment, and choose a candidate who will take us where we decide to go, not drag us away in the opposite direction. .

We must choose wisely and be sure of who we are electing this time. That is what the primary season is for.  We need to grill these candidates and and go after every gaffe and "misstatement". We can not go the Obama route - pull the lever and hope for the best. We cannot go the McCain route, and settle on the guy that the media likes best. We cannot go the Bush route - a social conservative but an economic progressive. We cannot go the Boehner route and make a deal for the deal's sake and come up empty.

Serious times demands a serious GOP challenge to Obama, nothing less will do. We need to wake up, pay attention and build on 2010. It would be helpful to supply our guy with a Senate majority to join the House majority. The stakes are that high. America cannot afford a second Obama term. We are barely surviving this one.

RLB