Winnowing The Field
It's been a couple of months since we looked at the GOP field for 2012, and there have been some significant changes. Some headliners have fallen by the wayside, and slowly but surely, a few brave souls have stepped forward and declared their attempted candidacies. Time to assess who we have running, and the new murmurs and rumors of candidates making noise, but not yet committing to run.
First, the declared candidates, in no particular order:
Mitt Romney - Mitt is still somehow hanging on to the front runner tag, at least in the mainstream media. We're not sure how that is happening. Granted he has a pile of cash to run with, but not much more than that. He has gone from the dashing, capable candidate of 2008 to something much less - but not in any definable way. He is a latecomer to conservative values, as is witnessed by his migration to the right on issues as varied as abortion, gun laws and health care. Romneycare remains his albatross. It almost looks like he is borrowing from the Obama playbook in keeping his speeches as vague as possible. We stand by our assessment that Mitt's time is past. He should have tried harder in 2008. He's wasting our time and his money.
Newt Gingrich - Ronald Reagan's standard-bearer and the deliverer of the GOP majority in 1994, has morphed into the clown prince of the candidate pool. It matters not that he has a wealth of ideas if most of them are wrong. On issues, he is chief among the RINOs, and his personal life reveals him to be preoccupied with his horn. Trading in the current wife for some new arm candy every few years does not garner anyone respect. We find Newt's lack of integrity to be matched only by his self-absorption. Running for President is just the latest snack that he's feeding his ample ego. We expect that ego to be bruised in the initial caucuses and primaries, and then maybe we will finally be rid of him.
Herman Cain - Cain is finally being taken seriously. You can tell because there is opposition to him now. The Paulistas are faulting him for his time with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. When giving a prepared speech or addressing a town hall forum he makes sense and handles hecklers with the skill of a stand-up comedian, and the authority of someone who knows the subject matter. Still, he needs to study harder. He was tripped up by Chris Wallace on FOX this past weekend on the question of "right of return" for Palestinians wishing to return to Israel. He faked and fumbled the answer to the point that he needed to issue a "clarification" later when he realized what he said. Gaffes will happen. Joe Biden has made a career out of them. As Cain learns how politics work, we expect him to become an even stronger candidate.
Ron Paul - We're not sure what to say here. He is isolationist, protectionist, and paranoid. He relies on the Constitution when it suits him, and games the system the rest of the time. We're not sure what happened to the Ron Paul of 2008, but the guy running this year has little in common with him. The crazy train has left the station and Ron Paul is driving. Stick a fork in him. He's done.
Tim Pawlenty - the "real" candidate - the guy with a "chance" to win. TPP doesn't rule him out, but Pawlenty needs to go a long way to earn either title in our minds. On the plus side he is a "likable" kind of guy - he meets the "have a beer with him' test. He gives a pretty good speech. He's about as solidly conservative as a former Governor of Minnesota can be, and there was no late conversion to that conservatism (like Romney). Still, he was a mixed bag as Governor, with an approval rating never getting too far north of 40%. He brought a degree of fiscal responsibility to Minnesota, but he is a proponent of ethanol and believes in hiking fees to discourage driving. He did an ok campaign kickoff last weekend - the video was well produced and had a good message. We'll keep an eye on him, but we're not sure what chance a bland, milquetoast cookie-cutter Republican will have against Obama.
Jon Huntsman - with Mitch Daniels sitting this one out, Huntsman is the logical go-to guy for the establishment Republicans. He is handsome, telegenic and gives good speech. He understands, and will not threaten the power structure. All of this will come together to doom him, as the conservative faithful continue to flush the RINOs out of the GOP.
Those are the serious candidates so far, and it's not a pretty picture. Out of all of them we only see Cain giving Obama a run for his money, and Cain is fighting a hugely uphill battle, on a steep learning curve. That's not to say that one of the others can't get their act together and win the nomination, we just don't see them unseating Obama.
So we look out on the horizon to those who might become convinced to throw a hat in the ring. Most of the names bandied bout have tripped themselves up (Christie, Bachmann) or have a very narrow following (Santorum). Not much promise there. Others who would draw attention just aren't interested (West, Jindal).
There are also the power brokers - the ones who have more power outside of the oval office than inside it. That's some of the dropouts - Barbour and Huckbee for sure. Palin is in this group as well, but may still opt to run.
Then there are those who are not running, not going to Iowa or New Hampshire, and not forming exploratory committees. Still, every time they draw a headline, they stand in stark contrast to and usually opposing Obama on one issue or another - or all of them.
Rick Perry has made his national reputation on a booming economy (more jobs have been created in Texas over the past two years than in the other 49 states combined), and on fervently preaching the 10th Amendment. His default response to President Obama's proposals are that they are "not in the best interest of Texas." Perhaps what is good for Texas, might be good for the rest of us as well. We don't count him out, even if he claims no interest in running. Stranger things have happened.
Jan Brewer of Arizona may be a one trick pony on immigration, but she is taking it hard to Obama. She's not pulling any punches, and has also grabbed the moral high ground of acting in the interests of Arizona as the Federal government has abandoned it's responsibilities. If she is considering a run, we would expect her pool of issues to expand over the next few months. We'll keep her on the radar.
And, of course Paul Ryan, the budget wunderkind, is in the mix. A sitting Congressman has only been elected President once (James Garfield - who also had the task of addressing a national debt crisis), so maybe it is time again. Ryan certainly has the budget cred, going beyond anyone else in the GOP to both balance the books and save the "entitlements." He stands tall on his truth as well - he does not apologize for the facts, he addresses them. We could do worse.
Here we sit, a little over 18 months away from the 2012 election - a year and a half away from trying to take back the White House. Eighteen months before the 2008 election the Democrats were running Hillary, and the GOP was scrambling against it's eventual nominee, John McCain. Front runners are almost never the eventual nominee.
In this election cycle, the Punditry speculates that a strong candidate can emerge as late as November of this year and still win the nomination and the White House. We at TPP are not sure that we share that assessment, but take some comfort in the hope that we are not stuck with the already declared candidates. Even a candidate with promise, such as Cain, is not served in his campaign by not having another strong candidate to argue and refine his positions against.
All we can judge for sure at this point is that if the GOP wishes to retake the White House it will need to field a candidate who provides a stark contrast to what President Obama offers. He (or she) will then need to communicate clearly and inquiringly a vision for the future of America, and a plan to attain it. America CAN handle the truth, and wants to have faith in it's leadership. The successful GOP nominee MUST deliver on this to become our next President.
RLB
Categories: Presidential Campaign 2012, political leadership, Partisan Politics
Tags: 2012 Elections partisan politics political leadership Presidential Campaign 2012
Cain has taken the lead over Romney in the latest Zogby poll. BTW, Newt is polling near zero in it. I guess he managed to vote for himself...
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IS THERE ANYONE OUT THERE LIKE WINSTON CHURCHILL ? NO I DON'T SEE ANYONE AT ALL THEY SEEM AFRAID TO RUN AGAINST HIM ITS ALMOST AS THO ONE WAS TAKING HIS LIFE IN HIS HANDS TO DO SO. AS FOR TRUMP HES FIRED WHAT A WIMP!!!!
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I'm getting a ticket for the Cain train. Enough BS, I want a real deal, whether he gets elected or not. Better to ask for what you want and not get it, than to settle and be stuck with it.
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nice blog, accurate one the candidates. i would suggest adding judge Roy Moore of Alabama, the Alabama supreme court chief justice that defended the displaying of the ten commandments...... he is thinking of running.
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I don't know - it looks like the loser train to me. Cain looks good, but has already started to backpedal. The rest are just lame. I think that we settle for taking the Senate and getting more of the House. There's not a President in this pack.
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I can go with Rick Perry. He's doing a fine job here. He just doesn't seem all that interested in running for President. It is a big headache, and Obama has made a mess out of things. I wouldn't want to clean up after him either.
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Wow - you're more brutal than me for a change. Not liking your guys chances much, are you? Well, there's always 2016...
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Here's an idea to make Trump relevant again. Let's do Politcal Apprentice. Gather all of these useless clowns together to get them out of the way, and keep them busy on projects. Then some real candidates can come forward to seek the nomination. The winner of Political Apprentice can be VP. sounds like a solution to me.
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I think that you've been unfair to Tim Pawlenty. Granted he's not the most exciting guy, but he's a solid conservative with successful executive experience. He's not doing platitudes like Mitt, he's laying out the truth. I think he will do well as a candidate.
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You guys always pick the next guy in line. The only exception that I can think of was Bush in 2000 cutting in front of McCain. Romney is who you're going to wind up with, and Romney willlose to Obama. Sorry, the truth only hurts when it is suppsed to.
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Rick Perrywould add some fun to the mix - especially since the Bushies hate him. Daddy Bush backed Kaye Bailey Hutchinson in the Governor's primary challenge, and W lent her Rove. The guy is a real Constitutionalist, and he loves to get into it over Obama's overreach. I'd welcome him tot he race.
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Perry, Brewer and Ryan are just wishful thinking - none are going to run. Still the possibility of a governor butting heads with Obama at the right time could make a new star in the GOP. I wouldn't count Pawlenty out either. Clinton was a second tier candidate when he took on Bush - and at the time Bush's numbers were in the high 60's. A consistent message will trump poll numbers - especially if it is delivered well.
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I don't know - Perry is making headlines again about the pourous border with Mexico. He's saying that notonly illegals get through, but terrorists as well. Sounds like a campaign speech to me.
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If nothing else this is good news for Cain. Mitt and Newt are both washouts. Pawlenty is ok, but he's not going to get anyone excited. I'd still like to see Scott Walker take a go at it. He handled the Wisconsin budget mess really well. It's refreshing to have leadership with a set of balls.
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Look, the doom and gloom is a little over the top. Other than Newt, everyone listed would make a credible candidate. They all have problems but so did McCain - remember, he was for amnesty before he was against it. George W was supposedly illiterate. Reagan was a cowboy. I'll support whoever the nominee is because any of them will be better than 4 more years of Obama.
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With the exception of Cain, all of the declared candidates are just varying shades of RINO. We need a true conservative, not more dealmakers.
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That is the appeal of Cain - he's not a politician, and he speaks bluntly. It was a lot of the charm with Trump too. America is looking for an outsider who is competent to get some degree of control over a runaway government. They say that great men rise in desperate times. Now seems like a good time to have one step forward.
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Bawlmerrep - the only reason that Clinton was elected over Bush was because Ross Perot siphoned off enough votes from Bush. For his re-election he had Perot causing trouble again for the GOP and Dole. Clinton never got better than 47 % of the vote. It's why the 3rd party talk drives me nuts.It only helps the Dems.
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Looks like Cain ran right off the rails this weekend. Now they are calling him a Muslim lover and a Fed Reserve conspirator. The crazies are killing everyone reasonable so that only another crazy is left to run the place. God help us if Ron Paul wins this way.
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Looks like Rick perry has been hearing what people are saying. He said at a press conference today that he would consider a run for President. I'd be the first in line to help out.
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Yeah, but with the good news comes the bad. Bachmann wants to run as well. I like her, but being a congresswoman who gets media attention doesn't make you any more qualified than being a senator who gets media attention (like Obama). I'd like to see some exprience in running something, not just being a team player.
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I like Rick Perry but being from minnesota mechelle is good but she voted for the patriot act now id like to ask her why? she is so bent on the constitution where does it say that in the constitution?
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I like Bachmann over Palin.
I like credentials of Perry. ++++
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I still think Sarah should run. Nobody generates the excitment that she does, and the left is terrified of her. That's why they keep attacking her merciliessly.
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Good God - no Palin and no Bachmann. We need a steady hand at the wheel, not a couple of pop stars on policy. I can support Perry. I like cain, but the experience thing is more important now that we've seen what no experience gets us with Obama. Hell, I could even hld my nose and vote for Pawlenty. But just say no to the two crazy ladies.
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I think that you're doing Mitt Romney a disservice. Everybody has hung Romneycare around his neck, but from day one he has always said that it was a solution that would work for Massachussetts, and as a state, they have the authority to do it. He has always argued against a federal system based on the same principles, because what works in one state, will probably not work in another. He gives the example of larger states with a higher percentage of uninsured people - the Mass plan would not work for that type of situation. Really, you shouldlisten to the rest of what he says.
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At least Romney understands business and the economy. I wouldn't just dismiss him.
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I'm going to be super careful this time. I can't believe that I bought into Obama's "centrist" bait. It's early, but before any candidate gets my vote, I wil be educated with the facts this time. We can't afford another 4 years of votes by uninformed people.
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All of them have a big L on their foreheads, or don't have a chance in hell. I'll hold out for Rick Perry.
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Mitt gave a heck of a kickoff speech today. I think he could be viable. He's got some questions to answer, and he'll have to answer them well, but he was inspiring today. I haven't felt real, proud to be an American inspiration in a long time. Not from McCain, and not from Obama. I'm going to keep an open mind on him.
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Think it's funny Palin upstaged Mitt and brought all the baggage to the fore even BEFORE he announced. I think she has a vendetta with establishment elitist Republicans across the board.
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The key is to TAKE A STAND. The ONLY way the GOP will win will be to stand up against demagoguery and also against vilification at all costs. They must stiffen and in some cases, grow a spine.
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Gingrich isn't even going to last as long as you thought. His whole staff walked out yesterday. I hear his deputy campaign manager is off to Pawlentyville. His campaign manager got Perry elected in Texas. I'm sensing he wants to be with a winner.
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