Well, it's official, as if there was any doubt. President Obama had a morning video greeting for his supporters (and anyone on his email list) that he would be seeking a second term. Why he chose a video forum rather than a cheering crowd is up for debate, but that's the way he went. He is the first declared candidate in either party.

We've looked at the prospects on the GOP side, now let's take a look at the current occupant of the Oval Office and look at his chances of returning. The GOP is salivating like Michael Moore outside a Ben & Jerry's waiting for his Cherry Garcia. This salivating may be their undoing.

When we looked at the prospective GOP lineup we found it to be for the most part unexciting at best, and problematic at worst. Most of frontrunners won't be running long with the heavy baggage that they will need to carry. Out of the second tier, it is generally the bland vs. the quixotic. It's not the time to be picking out new curtains for the White House.

Why not? On the right wing, President Obama is the unpopular guy who brought us the bank bailout (he voted for it), the nearly trillion dollar stimulus (that provided our highways with some colorful signs and not much else), the auto bailout, the insurance bailout, and has done nothing particularly useful on the economy or jobs. There's the deficit as well. His foreign policy has been a series of knee-jerk reactions or overthinking the problem to death. Then there's the big bogey-man - Obamacare.

As we explore further right we get the case about the socialist transformation of America, seeking impeachment, and questions of Obama's eligibility to be President in the first place. The first can have arguments made for it. The second would really be a waste of time since the normal impeachment process would use up nearly 2 years. The 3rd point is moot - whether he should be President or not, he is. Everyone on the right is looking for a fight, so what does our fighter face?

The first big advantage is that Obama IS the current occupant of the Oval Office. No matter what you think of him, he is the current heavyweight champion of American politics. Among those not actively engaged in political issues (recent estimates go to 30% of eligible voters), being the President gives you an automatic advantage. This is the "devil-you-know" vs. the "Devil-you-don't" vote. These are the people too busy trying to keep the family fed and housed to really look at issues. They get moved by their impressions of the candidate and the commercials.

The media is the second big tool in Obama's bag. Mainstream media, which accounts for a majority of news outlets widely available, is a little dismayed by Obama, but not willing to cut him loose. Hillary has not yet jumped into our fantasy scenario, link at Where's Hillary?  , so they really have no place to go. Advantage Obama. Count in that bag his union support and his corporate support (GE, GM, Citibank, Microsoft, etc), willing to pay for all of the slick advertising and the advantage grows a hundredfold.

Speaking of Hillary, that is the third big disadvantage that the GOP faces. She is the last person who did not take Obama seriously until it was too late. There is this enormous propensity for the GOP to underestimate Obama. He is many things, but he is not an empty suit. One can be of the opinion that he has no idea how to run a country, but he knows how to run a campaign. It's why he is where he is, and why John McCain is not. So, an immediate correction, McCain was the last person to not take Obama seriously until it was too late.

So, how does the GOP counter this and deliver a winning message and messenger? We look to what we have had, and we look to what we've got. Looking back at Ronald Reagan (the GOP gold standard), we had a successful 2 term governor of a large state. He consistently applied conservative principles in his governing and was arguing those principles long before they were popular. He challenged sitting President Gerald Ford in 1976, and used his exposure there to build a national base over the next 4 years. He concentrated on a positive message that refused to accept American decline. And he had the good fortune to run against Jimmy Carter during the last depression (yes, depression - recession is a euphemism).

Well Ronald Reagan is dead, and he's not coming back. The closest approximation we have today would be Rick Perry, current Governor of Texas. He meets all of the pre-requisites and has gained a national name by asserting control over his state by arguing the 10th amendment limitations imposed on the federal government. Unfortunately, while he has said quite plainly "Thanks, but no thanks" to Obama, he has also said that to a Presidential run. Several times. We take him at his word. It speaks to the sanity of the man that he doesn't want the job.

Looking at the prospective field so far, we share in the assessment of a large number of subscribers. The GOP is not well placed. Following the Reagan model we have Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. We would include Haley Barbour but he is a relative unknown outside of Mississippi and DC. Barbour does not have a national branding.

We spent a long time discussing the uphill battle either of these two candidates would have. See An Intervention For The Frontrunners  Romney is a "late to the party" conservative. As the Governor of Massachusetts he was squishy on social issues and sponsored Romneycare, which was the platform that Obamacare was built on. His conservative cred is shaky at best, and he will spend all of his time fighting off his version of socialized medicine. Starting on defense is not the way to go.

That leaves Huckabee, who has the reputation of a political bare-knuckles brawler, while retaining his down-home charm. He has used his stint on Fox to expand on his 2008 run, and he does have the conservative cred. Still, he has a double play on Willie Horton moments. That will be on continuous loop for the duration of the campaign. TPP still has issues with him not cutting a better deal with McCain on issues important to him to be included in the Republican platform. As we have pointed out, Hillary got a boatload of concessions and a gig at the State Department before stepping out of Obama's way. Reagan got many conservative principles advanced in 1976 before backing away from Ford. Not strategic thinking on Huck's part.

Common Sense Dictates

Common Sense dictates that the GOP has a long and hard slog if it wants to unseat Obama. A win will require the Republicans to think outside the box.The answer may be in the second string which we looked at in The Up And Comers  The Reagan model does not fit this election. The obvious fillers for the nomination have displayed a lack of the Gipper's skills. That is because they are not the Gipper, the Gipper is gone. Reagan has left the building - in 1989.

That does not mean that the principles that Reagan promoted do not apply anymore. They are the settled truth of conservatism - limited government, maximum freedom, fiscal responsibility, strong defense and staying out of the way as much as possible. Those truths were not practiced during the Bush 43 Presidency and America sent a message by handing things over to the Democrats.

The Democrats squandered their opportunity in a mere 2 years. The 2010 election loaned the power to the Republicans again in the House. TPP expects them to add to their numbers in 2012, and for the GOP to gain majority status in the Senate as well. With large enough gains the GOP may not need to win the White House. Should the GOP run it's typical candidate in it's normal fashion, the legislative majorities may have to be the consolation prize. Common Sense would have the GOP adapt and move in a way to better position themselves for a real run at the White House.

RLB