The GOP 2012 Scorecard
TPP has looked at the front runners, and the second tier. This time, in the spirit of the upcoming NFL Draft, we're putting together a scorecard for everyone we can find who is testing the waters. We count 18 so far who are in the advanced stages of thinking about it.
After the candidate's name we give a blurb assessment as to their chances. We base this on our reading that the American voter is looking for a candidate with leadership experience, solid credentials, little or no contact with DC, a record of fiscal responsibility, the ability to make a decision and the ability to articulate that decision to the public. We expect some disagreement, but we will repost at the end of the primary season to see how we did.
Haley Barbour - excellent strategist and governor. Baggage as being former lobbyist and RNC Chair in DC. He has backed the current RNC chair, so he is well positioned within the party. Probable final 4 contender, though his insider status may be his undoing. Good candidate for VP or Chief-of-Staff as well.
Michele Bachmann - solid conservative cred, but not ready for prime time.
John Bolton - lightning rod candidate. Combative and unyielding. Would be an excellent replacement for Napolitano at Homeland Security or as National Security Adviser.Herman Cain - strong Tea Party support. Charismatic. Exudes leadership. No political experience so a lot will depend on his ability to organize. Potential to make final 4.
Chris Christie - strong fiscal cred, but not ready for prime time. He needs to more clearly define himself on broader issues.
Mitch Daniels - solid economic cred. Pragmatic. Bland. Avoids confrontation which is the essence of Presidential politics. Will need to fix that to compete.
Newt Gingrich - too much baggage to salvage, has gone RINO. Out in the first couple of contests. First midnight train back to Georgia.
Rudy Giuliani - shot his load in his abortive run in 2008. We see him as Attorney General.
Mike Huckabee -Based on feedback from our front runner piece we've found him showing unexpected and loyal support, and he knows bare knuckle politics. Now considered by TPP to be a strong contender for final 4.
John Huntsman - formidable governor and ambassador to China. Can be strong contender if he can get name recognition. If not, excellent choice for Secretary of State.
Bobby Jindal - strong conservative cred. Popular as governor. Needs to decide if he wants to run, and then get his name out.
Sarah Palin - hard to tell. She's in the process of redefining herself - a lot will depend on how she does with that. Regardless, if she runs, she will have at least enough support to be a kingmaker at the convention. Probable for Final 4.
Ron Paul - principled, intelligent and in a lot of cases, right. Still he is the definition of a boutique candidate - a loyal passionate following that will send cash but not have broad appeal in the GOP. Not a shot for the GOP nod, though he can serve to push the party in the right direction.That was his claimed mission in 2008.
Tim Pawlenty - solid conservative cred, mixed bag as governor. Bland. To compete he'll need to get a personality.
Mitt Romney - his time has past. He should have made a better run in 2008. Put his experience to use as Secretary of Commerce.
Rick Santorum - Solid conservative, but lacking executive experience. Better candidate for VP.
Donald Trump - this year's Ross Perot - a sideshow and not much else. He could put his talent to use as Chief Trade Negotiator.
Allen West - principled, charismatic. Short on experience. Not ready for prime time, yet. He's going to be a force to reckon with as time moves forward.
Just to round out the list Rick Perry, Jeb Bush and Condoleeza Rice have all given a firm no. We expect other candidates to test the waters in the coming months, but they are not on the radar yet. We welcome them coming forward because no one has this locked down. It is wide open. Our wildcard General David Petraeus remains in the mix, but our thoughts are that he will only emerge as a consensus candidate if no deal can be brokered at the convention, or if he has a public falling out with the Obama Administration (in the manner of General Stan McChrystal).
That's our two cents for now. We are not predicting that the best candidate will win, but the way things are lining up so far, this is what the GOP has to work with. The Common Sense that we apply here is that if the voter criteria that we outlined at the start is not met by the GOP candidate, Obama will be re-elected. If he is re-elected he will face a Republican House and Senate, which will provide the GOP a bittersweet victory when history is favoring their argument. Common Sense would have them put forth their best candidate. As always we welcome your comments.
RLB
Categories: Presidential Campaign 2012, political leadership, Partisan Politics
Tags: 2012 Elections partisan politics Presidential Campaign 2012 RNC
Can't take you seriously at all without Herman Cain's name in there. He was the only one running for a while and has been the hanging out with all the right people in Iowa and other early nomination places. When he gets the nomination, I will laugh at people like you who don't even have him on your list.
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4th name on the list. Don't know how you missed it.
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I think Huck takes it. He's solid, knows how to run a campaign, and has the toughness we need in a President. He would be good for America. Anyone else except Trump would be a great VP.
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You are underestimating Santorum. He's got strong conservative views and he stands by them. He also has the broadest experience of any of the candidates with regard to government issues - domestic and foreign relations. This doesn't seem like the time to let a hick governor learn on the job. It certainly isn't working with Obama.
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Sorry to tell you this but it will be Barbour. He has hands down the best organizing skills and the biggest Rolodex of names. He's your nominee. Insiders rule. That's just how it works out.
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Barbour? That's the ultimate slimy insider. My dream candidate is Herman Cain, but I can live with Huckabee. You realize that you have at least half a dozen RINOs in there?
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Sarah all the way, baby! Right past Obama and don't let the door to the Oval Office hit you on the way out. Palin / West 2012
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I go with your assessments on the original two articles. Not much different here, but I don't dee anything happening with anyone not already looked at by you. I'm keeping my options open.
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Mitch Daniels is a solid candidate with lots of experience in dealing with budget problems. He's doing great work in Indiana, and is ahead of most of the rest of the country. I can go with him.
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Daniels is all quiet on social issues. I know he is conservative on them, but he wants to just avoid those issues in the campaign. IF he's willing to sacrifice those issues to "get things done", what else will he abandon in the name of progress?
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I see Walker is off the list - all the WI publicity not enough? For me, I'm not sure. The more I find out about the candidates the less that I like any of them. I'll vote GOP, but I don't want to have another McCain situation where I know going in that I'm on the losing side.
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The only two that have my attention right now are Cain and Trump. Cain I'd vote for. Trump is an embarrassment, but entertaining as hell.
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How about Jan Brewer? She seems popular enough in GOP circles.
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Well, I can dream or I can be practical. Cain has "presidential" written all over himself. Stil, he's a long shot at best. Practical side agrees with modoman - Barbour can call in every favor in the world to get the nomination. If he's serious about running, he can easily take it. If he doesn't, Huckabee will be the guy to beat.
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I still think that Tim Pawlenty is the guy. His numbers have been climbing steadily as he makes the rounds. He is the best andmost electable opponent to Obama.
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I had some hopes for Trump until he turned into a crazy old man. You know it's bad when you position yourself as a Tea Party candidate, but do it so badly that the Tea Party won't take you seriously. I guess I'm shopping around. No one is really doing it for me at this point.
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I'm not impressed at all by any of them. The politicians with an actual chance at getting elected are uninspiring. Worse, they are cut from the same cloth as everybody in DC. The CPAC winners are all a little crazy. Cain and West are popular on You Tube and Facebook, but the last time a President got elected that way we got Obama. I'm worried that the GOp will wind up McCaining again.
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I'm not happy with anyone here either. The one guy who would get me excited is not running - Rick Perry. He's done a great job for Texas, he can do a great jobfor the country. I think that he's not running because he understands that the country is so broken that it can't be fixed anymore. Why set yoursef up for failure?
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Scott Walker would be a great President, but I would hate to lose him here. He's finally got things moving in the right direction.
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So, your Final Four is Barbour, Cain, Huckabee and Palin? Geez, we're screwed.
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I am still REALLY liking the sound of Trump. He has the voice that will make people want to listen. I love his ideas about creating revenue utilizing our Military..why not?? We have the best and the rest of the World knows it - so when foreign countries seek our assistance, why not charge for the service. Certainly S Korea could afford it. And, hell yea, screw free trade when other countries try to manipulate their currency like China - charge 25% on all imports. LOWER our corporate income tax rate - we are the highest in the world! Pitiful when google, transocean, etc. all go to Switzerland because they have a lower corp. tax. Hell lower ours and they will all flock back and put AMERICAN's to work!!
I think with a good christian tea party conservative on the ticket with him to balance him out. I think he could be the Reagan of the 21st. Century!! I truly believe this man would be able to regain the respect that has been lost by obummer in the last 2 years. If he were in, much like Reagan, we would not have these problems with those pirates cuz he would BLOW them out of the water. And, after all we've done with Iraq-why can't we have some of that oil BEFORE Iran gets it???? huh - why not?? Oh yea and he would FIRE OPEC and we would be the WORLD's leading producer of oil and natural gas and we could then sell it to the rest of the world..why NOT?? And, he is not shy with words-he says it like it is - no beating around the bush! Just keep an open mind - we have a long way to go before 2012.
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Donna, I just finished reading the article and I was going to comment that people who dumpon Trump are jut being dismissive. I have heard him speak and I have met him. He is not his TV show personality. He is a patriotic, intelligent man with a generous heart. He genuinely fears for the direction the country is going in under Obama. He's not doing this for any other reason than he feels he has the right skill sets to fix a lot of the problems we face. He certainly doesn't need the pay cut. If we had him taking on Reid, Pelosi or Obama the results of the negotiation would look a whole lot different than the limp deals that Boehner is coming up with. I would vote for Trump in a heartbeat.
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I am feeling the same way. I think his voice and patriotism will OVERPOWER Obama - which is what we need. I believe he could attract the liberal base as well. I love his ideas of creating revenue quickly to help diminish the deficit that this administration has burdened us with. I love his idea of FIRING OPEC and drill baby drill and sell our oil to other countries-thus revenues! I hope people give him a chance. I know about his past campaign contributions, but didn't I hear something about Reagan doing that in his past too. I believe Mr. Trump is our next Reagan and I hope our children get the chance to experiment that like we did. I just hope he pulls a good christian conservative under his wing to help out his marriage issues for those people that have problems with that. Myself, I believe that was his personal business and none of ours, just like Gov.Sanford in SC.
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The more I look at the potential candidates, the more I think that we might grow our presence in the House, and probably take the Senate, but I think the White House is slipping from our grasp. There doesn't seem to be anyone without fatal flaws. There's no one on the second string that has a realistic chot at winning the nomination. I think that the best we will be able to do is box Obama in for his second term.
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