An Intervention For The "Frontrunners"
Our previous piece, A Crystal Ball For 2012 dismissed several categories of candidates outright - those who ran in 2008, RINOs, inexperienced in executive office, and specialty, or boutique candidates (those with a passionate but limited following). In this piece with put names out there, and reflect on why they just will not get the nomination.
The critical factor is that the GOP nominee must reflect the rank and file of those who vote Republican. It will not be acceptable do business as usual and give the nomination to the next guy in line. That's what happened with McCain, and it was a disaster as he lost control of his own campaign. We need to put our best candidates forward and to have them duke it out to ready the eventual nominee for the bucketloads that the Dems will throw at him (or her) in the general election.
Let's do our current frontrunners:
Newt Gingrich - Newt, you had it in the 90's, but you've turned into a train wreck. You've lost your edge and gotten all warm and fuzzy, softening your stance on everything from American leadership to global warming. You could say that you've gone establishment, and establishment generally translates as RINO. On top of that, parading your marital infidelity about in the papers and blaming it on the passion you felt for America is ludicrous. People who are passionate about America have tears well up when the national anthem plays. They don't screw around on their wives and shout "USA! USA!". You are a sad shell of who you were and your time is passed. Go home.
Mitt Romney - Mitt, you were the man in 2008. You had the answer to the stumbling economy. You had a new twist on how to deal with healthcare. You understood business. You were the calm adult in the room with the answers. Then you left the race and handed it to John McCain, who turned into the Republican version of John Kerry - an implosion candidate. Even Sarah couldn't save him. Now your negatives outweigh your positives. Romneycare alone will sink you in the general election. Understanding the economy and business is not as important as committing yourself to fixing them by continuing on when the electioneering gets tough.. Your best shot was 2008, and 2008 is gone. You missed your window as surely as Colin Powell did in 1996. The next President may have a job for you, but you wont be sitting in the Oval Office.
Mike Huckabee - Mike, we at TPP like you a lot. You have that Bill Clinton charisma and affability - there must be something in the water in Arkansas. Your policies generally fall in line with the conservatives and even Tea Partiers while not scaring the rest of the GOP to death. Still you have two millstones around your neck that we think will deny you the nomination and the Oval Office. The first is that you got out of McCain's way without any sort of a parting gift. Hillary was the runner-up to Obama and she got a boatload of stuff for conceding to Obama - all built into the Democrat platform before the deal was done. Your supporters got nothing, and you got a job at Fox News. It shows a lack of strategic thinking. Then there's Maurice Clemmons, who makes Willie Horton look like a low level offender by shooting 4 cops after his sentence was commuted by the then Governor. And Wayne DuMond, released from prison for rape, only to rape and murder another woman on release. Willie single-handedly brought down Mike Dukakis. Mike, you are facing at least a double play. You will be mercilessly hammered on this. It isn't fair, but it's true. Keep your gig at Fox. You will have more influence from the outside.
Ron Paul - Ron, you are the Libertarian's Libertarian, and that's the problem. You are running for the Republican nomination, and you scare the hell out of a lot of the GOP rank and file. We think that you are arguably the most principled man in the race, but you cannot win the Republican nomination. At best you will perform the function of Ross Perot in 92 and force the other candidates to focus on the actual issues, rather than deliver canned answers of spin. We think that the better forum for you would be to bump Bob Barr out of the front office at the Libertarian Party and make it your home. It's where you belong, and you would give them legitimacy.
That's your top-tier, now let's go to the bench. The second stringers and shining rookies:
NJ Governor Chris Christie - Chris, you are the man when it comes to taking on entrenched interests and trimming the government. You promised to do it and you did. Still, over the course of your first term, you have taken curious positions that seem to be in favor of Obamacare, and dismissive of the threat of radical Islam. These are serious issues when you leave NJ and go national. You have been quoted saying that you are not ready for the White House yet. We hope that you take your advice and sit this one out. You need to flesh out policies that will be acceptable to your constituents outside of NJ. You have potential but it's not your time yet.
Condoleeza Rice - her biggest impediment to the nomination is she has no interest in running for President. We like her too, and were encouraging her to go for it in 2008. It' not happening. Find another candidate.
Donald Trump - Donald, we respect what you have been able to do in your life, and we are well aware of your generous spirit and love of this country. That said, America will be expecting "Apprentice: White House" fromyou, and that's no way to run a country. We believe that you can have a role in the next administration - perhaps as chief trade negotiator. Play to your strengths, and do not muck up the waters. We're in the middle of a Presidency whose ego is writing checks that his administration can't cash. We really don't need more drama.
Jeb Bush - Jeb, we like you a lot, but the last Bush has left the White House. Thank you for recognizing that fact and sitting this one out. We think that you would make an excellent Secretary of Education based on your program's turnaround of Florida schools.
Common Sense Dictates
Common Sense dictates that these candidates sit it out. There isn't a pile of money big enough to get them the nomination. In the unlikely event that one does pull it off, they will lose to Obama, unless Obama meets a bruising primary challenge. That doesn't look like it's going to happen, though Hillary is still sniffing the water for blood.. The best thing is for these guys to get out of the way, and stop sucking the attention away from viable candidates.
There are a whole bunch of names not named. Some of them have severe negatives and a large uphill battle, but we don't count them out, at least not yet. They will be the subject of analysis in the followup to this piece. TPP believes them to be the initial core of viable candidates, with others likely to emerge as time goes by.
Members of the staff at TPP have been handicapping Presidential races since 1976, and collectively have an excellent track record of spotting trends, understanding the electorate and picking winners (whether that winner received our support or not). Our view of the current electorate is as follows:
America bought a "pig in a poke" with Obama - thin resume and feel good platitudes disguising an agenda that many in the country just don't want. It had been said during the campaign that Obama presented to us as a blank canvas that we could project our dreams on. It was a historic and feelgood election held at a time of dissatisfaction with 8 years of Bush and an economy teetering on the brink. They bought hope and change without understanding what that meant. The American voters got fooled. Even those on the left concede that point as they express their own disappointment in the President. They will not make that mistake again.
TPP repeats it's assertion that the mood of the nation seeks a nominee with leadership experience and a track record of success. It would be best for the nominee to have little in the way of DC connections. We believe the eventual nominee to be someone who does not come equipped with a national base but comes equipped with a solid resume. A person who speaks the truth in an adult fashion, and who follows through on his word. That's what the GOP wins with. If they don't come up with that, then Obama wins. With 4 years under his belt as President, he will have more credibility. Tomorrow we look at that list.
RLB
Categories: Presidential Campaign 2012, Historical perspective, political leadership, Partisan Politics
Tags: partisan politics political leadership 2012 Elections
Concur with your assessment of those you listed. I'll look forward to your second installment..... I'm leaning to Mitch Daniels... He's a solid Conservative with a proven track record in a "rust-bolt" state.... I have visited the northern Indiana area over the past 20 years and know of the struggle the many communities that were the heart of American's greatness.
We'll have to see if he has the "heart" and if he is able to rally enough Republicans around him.
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I gotta agree with all of this. Noticeably missing is Sarah. Do you still consider her alive for this? I would have thought she was out by virtue of your 2008 theory.
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Wow, blowing out all of the big names. You're not going to have anyone left that the voters have heard of. Unless your going Palin, and that would just be suicide. At least Obama will have an easy time with reelection.
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I don't think anyone is taking Trump seriously. You could have saved that paragraph. Bush, too. Other than that you get no arguments from me on this. Looking forward to your look at the real candidates.
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I'm going to really disagree with you on Ron Paul. The policies that Ron promotes re EXACTLY what the Repubican party should be doing. If the Republicans are conservative, youdon't get more conservative than paying our bills and minding our own business on the world stage. We spend billions of dollars on foreign aid to countries that try to undermine us. We are spending our treasure and blood trying to introduce democracy to cultures who have only known repressive thugocracies. We have a $14 TRILLION dollar debt because we are concentrating on issues that are NOT our responsibilty. We need to get back to what George washington said about doing business with everyone and getting politically involved with no one. Ron Paul 2012!
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Ron Paul has addressed the Libertarian thing before. He chooses to remain a Republican in the hope of making change from within the party. If the fight is wotrth it for him, I am with him. That said, I don't think of him as President material. I'm surprised that you wrote off Mike Huckabee though. He looks to be the best of the pack so far.
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Time to toss your own history back at you. Reagan looked cooked two years into his first term. Then the economic numbers started turning around and he won relelction in a landslide. Clinton did the same. That's the track President Obama is on. You guys pick who you want. It doesn't matter. You're getting a second term of Obama.
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Hi Val. Two things. Reagan's economicpolicies worked, so the economy improved and he won reelection. The numbers are not bearing that out with Obama. Second, Clinton tokk hi shellacking to heart and chose to work with the Republicans instead of doubling down. Not seeing that happen ether. I'm not sure who it is yet, but it's going to be a Republican in the White House after Obama finishes his first term.
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I agree that the answers that this country needs cannot be found with these men. I am saddened that Dr. Rice does not care to continue in public service, but I can certainly understand her desire to resume private life. She has already served her country with great distinction. I am looking forward to see who you do think has potential. I am hoping it encompasses more than just the obvious.
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That's a whole lot of money that you're fighting against. How did Bush take it away from Mccain? Money. How did McCain take it away from Huckabee? Money. How did Obama take down Clinton? Money. You can say that your top tier isn't the guy, but one is going to be the nominee. I think you're right about them tanking in the general election though.
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I'm with the last commenter. These guys have all of the money. Where does some second tier prospect come in and knock off the big dogs? It reaqlly doesn't matter if these guys are flawed. One is going to be the nominee and will take on Obama.
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Ok seriously - Jeb Bush and Condi Rice? Are you just trying to fill column space? No one is talking about them.
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Hey Norm - Feb issue of National Review has a cover story on his post - governorship, and he has been asked to run, but has consistently ruled out 2012, so yeah, there's a point to listing him. As to Condi, there's a big internet push for a Rice / Christie ticket, which would be a mistake because I think Christie is a one trick pony. His views do not reflect the majority of Americans beyond budget cutting.
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Just a correction. Huckabee did not roll over for McCain like all the rest. He stayed in til McCain collected enough delegates and then just accepted reality. If McCain didn't get enough delegates to the convention, he was in for a full on floor fight. I supported him then, I support him now.
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Hoagie is right. Huck stayed in until I think Ohio, which was one of the last primaries. The pardons will work against him, but there's no issue with him rolling over for McCain.
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Huckabee has one other problem that doesn't sit well. He was playing footsie all through the early primaries with Romney to deny McCain wins. WVa comes to mind as an especially ugly tag team event. Ganging up on the opponent is just cheating.
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Yeah, nothing to argue with here, but I'd put Palin on the list too. She can't seem to get past the Tina Fey version.
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I can still go with Huck. I think you're underestimating him. He'd make a fine President. He's got moral conviction, and true patriotism - two things sorely lacking in the White House now.
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I'm not really feeling the love for any of the potential candidates yet. All of the ones listed here are, I don't know...obvious and boring, or just silly (like Trump). The ones on the other list, your Up and Comers looks like a yawnfest too. No one is inspiring my patriotism in a positive way. It's only inspired because I feel the country is going down the toilet and no one worthy is stepping up to lead in saving it.
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I disagree with your assessment of Christie. The statements he has made about health care and muslims were taken out of context, and do not reflect what he believes. It would be a shame to have a fine leader thrown away because of a couple of You Tube moments.
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The only guy alive for me on this list is Mike Huckabee, and I'm not going to jump up and cheer for him. Stick a fork in the others - they are done.
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EVERYBODY on this list needs to accept reality and sit out 2012. Nothing but RINOs and damged goods. Bring me a true conservative that won't shrink from a fight.
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Big disservice to Mike Huckabee here. He didn't rollover for McCain. He kept McCains feet in the fire right til McCain got enough delegates to be assured the nomination. Huckabee is a solid conservative, and there is no one who doesn't have some unfortunate decision in his background. You're making a big deal out of nothing. I think he's a winner in 2012.
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Hate to spoil your party but Hillary says she's finishing out O's first term and is done. She doesn't want VP or the Presidency. I know you were hoping, but it's not going to happen.
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