A Crystal Ball For 2012
The mid-term is over, and the lame ducks are squatting back in DC. The newly won majority in the House for the GOP is eagerly awaiting taking the reins in January, and doing their best at chest thumping now. You would think that there would be a lull in the soap opera, but politicians are the ultimate attention whores. We're not even referring to the Charlie Rangels and Lindsey Grahams who find the need to throw themselves if front of the cameras. We're talking the next big thing starting to bubble up.
Already the pilgrimages to New Hampshire and Iowa are starting. It's two years out but already the contenders are vying for favor in two small states that are unrepresentative of a lot of the United States. States that make or break candidates. The silly season has already begun. The would be leaders of the free world are doing their practice laps for the big run. Derision 2012 has begun - the race to the White House.
It's too early you say. Nope - look at last time. Hillary was running from the moment she took her Senate seat. Obama spent more time on the campaign trail than he did in the Senate Chamber. John McCain had been running since 1999. Whether we want it or not, it's time.
TPP might as well dive in headfirst and see what the competition looks like. Let's go by party.
The Democrats
President Obama is the presumptive nominee, but then again, so was Hillary back in 2008. It's amazing how fortune's can change. Both will testify to it. TPP has posited for months that Hillary may challenge President Obama. You can get the background at: Where's Hillary?
Hillary is, as far as we can tell, the only Democrat with the standing and the stones to take out a crippled Obama. To quote James Carville, "if Hillary gave one of her balls to Obama, they'd both have two." A lot of this depends on what Obama does to salvage himself, but he's out of his rookie year and he is still making rookie mistakes. The people who can do the most to help Obama are Bill Clinton and John Boehner. Neither is much motivated to do so. A good signal of a Hillary challenge will be her retirement as SecState to return to private life. We would expect that in January or February of 2011, but could come as late as June - when the Afghanistan timetable starts running. That is the only possible drama that will be coming from the Democrat side.
The Republicans
Odds are, this is where all of the action will be as the GOP struggles for it's own soul. The next nominee will be the product of which section of the GOP is deemed most effective, and most in line with mainstream America. The establishment Republicans were badly mauled by insurgent conservative candidates in the mid terms. Many more of the establishment Republicans will stand for election in 2012 alongside the Presidential race. The Republican Party will be defined by this dynamic - Country Club or Tea Party. The Presidential nominee will, in large part, depend on what happens during the 112th congress.
There are some givens. If a Republican ran for President in 2008, he will not be the nominee in 2012. The GOP suffered badly for giving the nomination to John McCain because it was his turn to be nominee. Not a single Republican who dropped out is viable for 2012. They either have limited interest (Giuliani, for example) or seen as being complicit in giving the nomination to McCain (such as Huckabee or Romney). All 2008 candidates are DOA for 2012.
The tide is against any of the establishment DC Republicans as well. There is not a sitting Senator or Congressperson with a credible chance at the nomination as of this writing. That is not to say that one cannot emerge, and some will run. Jon Kyl of AZ is already campaigning in a manner by blocking the START treaty. John Boehner is still figuring out strategy, and probably will want to concentrate on being an effective Speaker. If one emerges, he will need to come out swinging, and now.
The newly-minted Legislators coming from the ranks of the Tea Party suffer from a different kind of Obama drag. The American public has seen what has happened when you take an inexperienced person with rock star drawing power and make him President. America will be looking to experience this time. McCain might have saved his campaign by sticking with that theme, but oops.
There is a lot of talk about Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. They will most likely have their day, perhaps sharing a ticket (We see Rubio / Paul rather than Paul / Rubio), but that day will not be in 2012. No freshmen anything this time around.
So we go to experienced, non DC Republicans. The two names that come to mind immediately are Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, both of whom are on the warm-up circuit. Romney is disqualified because of his 2008 run. VP maybe, Prez isn't going to happen. Newt would have been an interesting choice, but looking at the latest election he has gone too establishment for the top job. Again VP maybe, or a cabinet appointment.
Then there are the Dream Tickets. One of the more popular ones is Rice / Christie, which teams former SecState Condi Rice with reformer NJ Governor Chris Christie. We think it's a great idea from a campaign standpoint, but neither person has indicated any desire for a run. For some reason enough people want the job. We need to concentrate on them. There has been talk of runs by Gen David Petraeus (current commander in Afghanistan, and a wildly political animal) and JC Watts (retired and respected Congressman from Oklahoma).
And what about Sarah - the poster girl for the Tea Party. Former Governor Palin was the odd woman out in 2008, and certainly had and has the rock star quality among the Republican base. The Left spends an inordinate amount of time belittling her, which gives the impression that they are scared of her. She could easily turn back Obama campaign charges of inexperience right back on the President. That, in effect is what counts her out. Experience is going to be an issue this time. Replacing Michael Steele as the head of the RNC might be a better plan.
Where do the Republicans go for a candidate? Where they are most successful - to the Governor's mansions around the country. There is an excellent crop of Republican governors (Bobby Jindall and Rick Perry come to mind instantly) who have leadership experience, solid track records, and an air of gravitas currently missing in the Oval Office. We see this as the most fertile ground for a successful Republican candidate.
Common Sense Dictates
We do not have a crystal ball, but senior members of the TPP Editorial staff have been watching Presidential runs since 1976, and have a good sense of the public mood. It is early, but in judging the pulse of the electorate, the winner of the next Presidential election will need to possess specific qualities. Leadership, experience, forthrightness, humility and an ability to persuade the American public will all be key. The party that puts forward the candidate that best embodies those qualities will have produced the next President of the United States. So says Common Sense.
RLB
Categories: political leadership, Partisan Politics
Tags: Obama Administration partisan politics
Jindall / Romney in 2012. We've got our own candidate of color, and someone who actually understands the business world. I'm all in for it.
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Don't be dancing on Obama's grave yet - he's already doing what he needs to. You don't give him enough credit on ability or survival skills.
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I've voted Democratic up until now. I think the Republicans might do a better job handling the economy, and I did vote that way this time. I'm not sure I can buy in on voting for a Republican President. I either disagree with the candidates mentioned, or don't know who they are. Obama is a washout so far. I would like to see Hillary take a shot. I think that if we elected her last time, we might be in better shape now.
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I think that the eventual Republican nominee isn't even on the radar yet. No one mentioned gets me excited enough to send a check, and that's my litmus test. I agree that if the GOP goes for the "safe" candidate, they lose again. We need a full change in direction.
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Way early on this one, but even Hannity tried to pigeonhole Dick Morris today on the same thing. There's no one out there on anyone's radar that does it for me. I think that the eventual nominee isn't even on the radar yet. I wouldn't count Chris Christie out though. He's just what we need nationally - no nonsense and geit the job done. He fits your qualifications. I'd vote for him.
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There's not going to be a challenge to President Obama. All of the players remember what happened to Kennedy (and Carter) in 1980. Hillary is respected where she is for what she's doing. Why risk her current job by taking on a President who may pull out of his slide? It doesn't make sense.
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The mood out here is wait and see. I think that most people are looking to see if Obama can do a Bill Clinton. We'll know more come January. For the Republicans, Gingrich seems to have a lot of buzz going around here.Not sure what kind of traction he will get. I don't see him as a real strong candidate. Speaker of the House is just the head congressman - BFD. Time will tell.
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I don't think you're giving Obama his due. The Republicans squealed and howled, bt Obama passed the stimulus, unemployment extensions, health care reform, and he rescued GM. He got things done. You might not agree with what he did, but he ran the table for two years. I think he keeps it up and gets himself re-elected as well.
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Nice to see the Libs out in force. It isn't gonna change anything come 2012, but they are fun to listen to. I like Jindall and Rick Perry would be fine with me. I wouldn't cut Romney from the list yet. He's a hard campaigner, and he's solid with the conservatives. I wouldn't even mind Sarah - she couldn't screw upthings any worse than the big O has. Besides, she looks great in a short skirt and heels. Bring it on!
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In the primaries, a challenge from Hillary because she disagrees on policy, which she probably loses. Then in the actual election, Obama faces off against General Petraeus, who runs because Obama wouldn't give him what he needs in Afghanistan. There's a dream scenario.
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I'd get behind a George W Bush "Do You Miss Me Yet?" tour.
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I'm not sure that the country can wait for Rubio / Rand, though I would vote for it. We need someone now. I still like Romney - solid conservative cred, and he really didn't hand it to McCain. He gave McCain a run for the money and realized that it wasn't going to happen in 2008. Saving your money for a better shot seems like good economics.
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Someone should have given that advice to Meg Whitman. $140 million and coming in 2nd to the worst governor in CA history til the last two. I still like Huckabee - he was the last man standing against McCain. You have to respect that.
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Hey, Rand might be to inexperienced, but Ron is good to go. I think he'll get taken way more seriously this time. He is the first Tea Partier.
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I think that it would be better if instead of getting the most partisan people to run, we could get someone who just worked out some practical solutions to our problems. The solutions aren't on the far right or left, they are in that huge middle ground. Maybe we should try to work there.
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That makes sense Wally. Obama pushed us way too hard left, but I don't think we want to go that hard right. We had a good mix that worked for us for the most part until the economy crashed. I never wanted government health care. I do wnat someone looking out for my investments other than someone who makes money whether I door not. There is a balance in the middle.
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That's what the Repblicans were elected to do. Roll things back. I dn't see America as being a good place tohaveone of those European style nanny states. Being taken care f by kindly old uncle sam from cradle tograve would destroywhat made this country great - individual liberty and initiative. Look at what "helping out" from the government has destroyed the black community. Dependence on government requires you to give up your independence. I'm not going to do that. Rick Perry for President!
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I like the idea of Petraeus. I'm just not sure if he's a Republican or a Democrat. I served under him. He's a lot like what they say about Eisenhower - it doesn't matter what the ideology is as long as the plan gets results. He might be that middle ground candidate, and he certainly gets results. Either way he'll be taking on the boss though. I don't see it happening. I can do Bobby Jindall as a backup plan. Mitt Romney too,they both know how to make things happen. It's called leadership.
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Jeb Bush isn't doing anything right now, if it really means that much to you.
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I'll take any reasonable adult, instead of someone playing chicken with the economy. Deal with the tax hikes! My phone has been ringing off the hook. I have businesses not sure if they can afford to hire. I have people not sure what they can give for gifts because they don't know the bite coming out of their paychecks in January. Fix the problems first. Screw the pandering.
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I'm not sure the middle ground exists in government. It certainly doesn't win elections. The Democrats keep getting more liberal, and the Republicans keep getting more conservative. Our only period of working together in the last 40 years was for a few weeks following 9/11 when we were all Americans for a brief time. We have gotten fat and lazy, depending on the government for handouts. We pay young men and women to fight for us. We have reduced electing our leaders to some strange popularity contest. Then we want leaders to emerge and fix things for us. We should be ashamed.
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Bummer Carl. So now what, we just give up? I think it's good that people are fired up. It means that they are paying attention. The problem is that we are voting against things, and the only choice to vote for is something else that we don't want - or that we can't possibly get. It's time to get real about what government can do and should do. It can't fix everything. It can't even manage most things. If we have bad leadership the fault is our own for not expecting more of who we elect. More qualified people don't step up because the process is ridiculous. It's a marathon version of Dancing With The Stars. We get what we settle for.
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Well, there's finally a party for the true kooks and sellouts to go to. The RINOs are looking for an alliance with the progressives. Like that hasn't already happened, since RINOs are progressives.
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I find it interesting that you mentioned former Rep J. C. Watts - a committed Christian minister and a black man. He is not well known outside of the circles that he travels in. I would respect and support any ticket on which he is a member.
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