The Education of Barack Obama

We like to do pop culture references in our titles - this one is a bit dated, but for those of you with a longer memory will remember the scene from the film classic "The Graduate". The line is uttered by a surprised, incredulous, but eager to believe young Dustin Hoffman, as he walks in to find Mrs. Robinson (Anne Bancroft) reclined on the bed in lingerie and removing a stocking. We at TPP are identifying a bit as we look at the subtle but major turn in President Obama's foreign policy direction. We do not know if it will work out  with any less confusion than the film version, but the reference was too good to pass up.

TPP has been accused on occasion of picking on the Obama administration. We have always maintained that when the administration was called to task, it was because it was acting contrary to the best interest of the country as we view it. Barack Obama, as President, is the personification of the administration. As President, he sets the agenda, and when the agenda seems ill-conceived or in some cases wrong, we call him on it.

We allow free reign for those who disagree with the opinion of TPP to state their case in comment following the articles. We also amend our positions when new information comes to light. We do not claim infallibility, we just appeal for reasoned debate.

For those of you who are longtime readers, you will remember that we welcomed the new President's initial conciliatory attitude towards nations that were at odds with us. We felt some discomfort at the gaffes in dealing with our traditional allies in this effort. We thought the trade-off might prove to have positive results by toning down the bluster between regimes used to the rigidity of the Bush administration.

As time went on, the President's offers of "working together" were continually rebuffed. Iran and North Korea continued in belligerent defiance. China and Russia continued with their own agendas without regard to cooperation with the west. Pakistan provided what help was required to continue to receive aid, but not much beyond that. Our traditional allies were shoved to second class status in the same manner as would a teenage girl dumping her friends in favor of some hot new crush. We questioned the wisdom of continuing to "turn the other cheek". The expected benefits of such an approach were not materializing. Our allies were miffed, and our enemies just viewed us as weak.

With that in mind, we are cautiously welcoming yet another turn in the administration's and in President Obama's personal stance in what appears to be a correction in his foreign policy. We will not speculate on the President's motivations. We will just point out some positive developments, and what we have gleaned to be the cause of the change of heart.

Over the past 2 months, the Obama administration has gone in a new direction on several fronts in dealing with allies and enemies alike. First, was the rapprochement with Hamid Karzai, President of Afghanistan. There is little question that President Obama viewed his administration as corrupt and ineffective. That may well be true. It is also generally accepted that the President of the US would have preferred the President of Afghanistan to have been replaced in last year's elections. That didn't happen. Now, the two have kissed and made up and are BFF (that's Best Friends Forever for those of you not big on texting). It's interesting, but it's not a bad move. More later.

Next was making up with the British on the election of David Cameron as Prime Minister. For the first time President Obama confirmed the "special relationship" between the Brits and America. We're not sure if Mr. Cameron and Mr. Obama hit it off in a way that Gordon Brown or the Queen of England just couldn't do, but again - we welcome the change of heart.

Then there was the recent hug-fest between the President and PM Benjamin Netanyahu announcing that the bond between the US and Israel was "unshakable". When last the two met, it was for the purpose of President Obama dressing down Mr. Netanyahu, avoiding the traditional photo op, and sending him out the back door. This "share the love" moment was right on the heels of the flotilla raid, so it seemed all the more out of character for the Obama Administration. Still, kudos for what we see as a smart choice.

The spy scandal last week made huge headlines, but only on the face of it, not the nuance. It put Mssrs. Putin and Medvyedev on notice that we are aware of the game they are playing and that we are not prone to look away. The trade was portrayed as a bad deal for us (they get 10 and we get 4), but the 4 who were freed provided exceptional service to the United States and Britain. The 10 they got back were low level and not in sensitive positions. Of those sent to Britain, one was instrumental in outing Russian moles placed in high positions in the CIA during the late 1990s. The other 3 were having release sought by the British. Our help was used as a token of our esteem to our British allies - sort of a bouquet of flowers for no reason.

One item largely ignored by the press was the Obama administration ramming through a new lease in Okinawa, over the top of the winning candidate for Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's  vocal opposition.He campaigned on a promise to shut down the base, and just recently paid the ultimate political price for his caving on it. He resigned on June 2, 2010 -essentially falling on his sword.

That is a lot of movement from Obama's original approach. What would cause such a change in mindset? Reports have been swirling, though never quite surfacing in the mainstream media, that intelligence gathered from the trifecta of terrorist attempts over the past few months (Ft. Hood shooting, Christmas Day Bomber, Times Square Bomber - keeping with editorial policy, TPP does not name terrorists. Any remembrance should go to the victims), provided an education for the President equal to the epiphany received by George Bush on 9/11.

All three freely talked with authorities - police, FBI, military and intelligence, as they proudly admitted guilt. A contact we have in the NYPD with first-hand knowledge of the Times Square incident (who related what he knew in a private conversation, and then requested anonymity when we asked to share this) said that the suspect not only refused to remain silent - "he wouldn't shut up". Details have since come out about his training in Pakistan, the plot, his contacts and co-conspirators. The Christmas bomber, trained in Yemen revealed hundreds of suicide bombers waiting in the ready to attack US targets. He is proof positive of the ability of a terrorist to circumvent our no-fly lists. All spoke of recruitment of US citizens with sympathies to the cause, who are radicalized, ether abroad or on US soil, as was the Ft Hood shooter.

We can only assume, and hopefully this is the case, that the President has suddenly found a new appreciation for the fight he is in. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld "The fight you are in is not always the fight you want to be in." We at TPP would like to believe that he now has a better appreciation of who threatens us, and the need to draw those allies that we know that we can depend on closer. This could explain President Obama's change of heart on England and Israel.

We hope that his effort to maintain the base in Okinawa, even over the objection of an ally, was brought about by his revelation that we need a far forward base to deal with threats emanating from terrorism moving through Indonesia, the Philippines and other island nations of the south Pacific. It also will provide a sizable capability and immediate presence should the situation in N. Korea deteriorate. We must assume that the President and Secretary Clinton were persuasive enough in their arguments for the continuation of the base for the Japanese Prime Minister to agree and accept his fate.

We think that though he may not be thrilled with President Karzai, President Obama is aware that Karzai, well versed in western politics and with family ties to the US, is the most pro-Western leader available in a country that has only known warlords and corruption. The reality could be as simple as the devil that you know is better than the devil that you don't. Karzai may be an imperfect vessel, but he is the best option we have to achieve some sort of stability over the long term in a manner friendly to the West. Of course, the USSR had similar ideas in the 1980s. Some times you do what you have to.

The President may also be signaling to Russia and to China that reports of his naivete are exaggerated. The spy swap was a subtle "we'll work with you, but we know what's going on." We can hope for that.

Common Sense Dictates

TPP does not wish to read more into this than there is. We do not dream dreams that life will get better just because we want it to. We do not draw illusory hope out of isolated incidents. Our "hope" from the start was that President Obama would learn and grow in the manner that both Bill Clinton and George Bush did. These examples may be the first green shoots coming up from what has failed over the last 18 months. We do not know the President's motivations, but even if it is merely to live on to a second term, a good idea is a good idea. We encourage these signs of growth in the foreign policy arena. We hope to see some develop in domestic policy as well. Ideology aside, the success of America depends on America succeeding. Should those ideas be contrary to what a candidate promises on the campaign trail, the measure of a statesman is his ability to accept that those ideas aren't working and to develop policies that do work. That is the essence of common sense.

RLB