Obama at the Precipice
The Facts on the Ground
- President Barack Obama was elected in an atmosphere of chaos seeking change.
- At inauguration, President Obama scored extremely high in approval polls.
- A year after his inauguration President Obama's approval rating is at a historical low, indicating a growing dissatisfaction with policies put forth by his administration
Overview
What a difference a year makes. It was just a year ago that newly inaugurated President Barack Obama stood ready to usher in a new age in America, restoring us as the "shining city on the hill". Today, he stands at the brink of his agenda going over a cliff into the abyss of a failed presidency.
Most pundits are doing a version of the President going zero for four on his personal appeals. They cite going to Copenhagen to get Chicago the Olympics, campaigning for the democratic candidate for governor of New Jersey and Virginia, and most recently his failed appeal for the Democratic candidate to replace the late Teddy Kennedy. His initiative on healthcare is going back to the drawing board, his "cap and trade" climate proposal is stalled in the senate along with banking reform. His hundred billion dollar fund for developing nations that he pulled from the ashes of the Copenhagen Climate Conference is going nowhere. Among America's enemies, Obama is seen as weak. Among our allies, he is increasingly viewed as naive or ineffectual. Obama is now polling at the lowest numbers of any president one year into his administration. President Obama is probably not enjoying the Oval Office as much as he thought he would.
The average person, observing the puffed up pride of America at the inauguration of President Barack Obama would have been tempted to buy into the hype that we had entered into a new age in America - an age when racial issues, poverty, ignorance and even climate change could be tackled with ease by our new leader and his best and brightest advisers. It seems that way at the beginning of most new administrations - when the headiness of the win overshadows the enormous task undertaken. We have now completed one year of the Obama Administration, and the bloom, as the saying goes, is off the rose. President Obama and those serving in the executive with him are finding the truth of the maxim of Alexander the Great, who was arguably the most powerful man in the western world at the height of the Greek Empire - "Conquering is easy, governing is hard."
In a review of Obama's first few months, the American public is a bit less enthralled by the common man from Illinois, who has tried to claim the mantle of both Lincoln and Kennedy. Even with a solid majority in Congress, he has found that passing his agenda has been at first easy with poor results (the ARRA "stimulus plan"), and later very difficult to do at all (healthcare).. Candidate Obama spoke in feel good rhetoric that was easy to support. That support resembled parts of the Mississippi River – a mile wide and ankle deep. Support for many things evaporated in the harsh light of public scrutiny. America in growing numbers has decided that the change it wants is not necessarily the change that Obama is offering. With the economy limping along, home prices still depressed, jobless numbers still on the rise, America seems uninterested in issues like the "cap& trade" climate bill, and is outright hostile to government involvement in the healthcare system. This follows Obama's controversial decisions to involve the government in the banking / stock industry and taking virtual control of the American automobile industry.
What political capital Obama has is being spent as unwisely as many a government budget. This provides a crossroads window of opportunity for Obama. With his supermajority lost in the wake of the Massachusetts senate election, he can no longer choose to lock out the Republican minority and force his agenda through as did FDR. It would be wisest for him to choose to concentrate on the issues that Americans care about on an everyday basis - a stable and growing economy, and a return to the prosperous times that we had become accustomed to prior to the collapse of the stock and housing markets. For that he will need the Republicans, who seem to be more in sync with the mood of the American people on a growing range of issues.
We cite two paths that reflect the mood of the country at this time. During the period of upheaval of the early 1970s - a time of war, bad economy, growing inflation and unemployment, distrust of the government, Watergate - the country signaled that it wanted change by electing Jimmy Carter in 1976 as the Washington outsider who would "change" things in DC. Carter, a principled man, would not "make friends" in Congress, would not negotiate on his proposals, and would not bend in accommodation. Though enjoying a majority in Congress, members at the time enjoyed a bit of give and take with their Republican counterparts in the spirit of getting things done. Carter's methods did not work well on Capitol Hill and the situation in America deteriorated further. As Americans sought practical and prudent action, Carter, with the best of intentions, took too many issues on, made too few friends, and provided nuance instead of a clear plan. He was thought to be vacillating and indecisive in the face of crisis. He was turned out on the simple catchphrase of Ronald Reagan - "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?". America, clearly, was not.
After the Reagan years, and the continuation of them (sort of) with Bush 41, America was again in a sea of change. The economy was about to meet up with the Savings and Loan "crisis", we had won the cold war and Gulf War I, but we had lost our identity. Being a lone superpower brought about a quest to define who America was in this new world situation - new thinking and new leadership was sought for a new time. Change again was the theme. Enter Bill Clinton with a bold agenda to remake us in the world - economic success, world peace, universal healthcare, and "two chickens in every pot". Clinton started with several initiatives on the environment, gay rights and the infamous Hillary health commission - and the electorate who backed Clinton as an agent of change, backed away and delivered him a Republican controlled House of Representatives in 1994. Clinton, at his crossroads, looked to the example of Carter doggedly fighting for his agenda, and saw how badly it ended. Clinton decided on accommodation and cooperation with the Republicans and accomplished quite a bit with a prosperous economy, several free trade agreements, and the jewel of the Clinton presidency - welfare reform, which brought record numbers of previously "unemployable" people into the workforce earning good pay. Clinton chose to pursue a constructive course relevant to the American public and was rewarded with a more generous assessment from history than Carter.
Common Sense Dictates
President Obama stands at a similar crossroads now, or rather looking down the precipice. He can continue on his current course and doom his presidency, or he can take a different direction and salvage it. The rancorous extreme wings of his own party and that of the Republicans do not reflect the views of the vast majority of Americans - what Nixon termed the "great silent majority". America, as a society is more conservative than the extreme left would have us believe, and more liberal than the far right is comfortable with. Most Americans will support initiatives that stress personal responsibility aided with temporary assistance to achieve that personal responsibility. Most Americans do not see or even want the government to be our caretaker, but they do see a responsibility for those who have achieved to reach back and pull more forward. The American public holds the reasonable and prudent course of action.
Obama strives to project this harmony with the great silent majority, but he just can't seem to carry it off. Instead he has shown a remarkable degree of tone deafness in hearing America voice it's concerns. It is reflective of the mind of America that in general, we want to be better, but in the specifics we want to be careful as to how we proceed. Wholesale changes to how "things are done" in America provide unease and fear rather than purposefulness. Compounding his error, people do not want to be sold on an idea that they just don't want. "If we just educate them, they will see that we are right" is a patronizing, and insulting attitude. Americans understand issues such as climate change, healthcare and immigration. They have ideas that need airing and discussion - not suppression or denial of validity. No one feels vindication for their ideas by a party line vote win - especially in a country divided near the 50% mark. The changing of major parts of the structure of American society requires the consent of an overwhelming majority of Americans - Democrats, Republicans and Independents. To do otherwise is to impose a tyranny of the majority on a sizable minority – which runs counter to the ideals of this country, and to Common Sense.
RLB
Categories: Historical perspective, political leadership, Partisan Politics
Tags: historical perspective political leadership
At this point it looks like Obama is more dedicated to his ideology than to a second term. In any case I'm not sure he has Clinton's smarts.
Reply to this
Don't get too cocky - it's what took down Coakley. Obama still has 3 years til election day. Don't write him off yet.
Reply to this
Yeah, I'll agree with that. Obama is a way better politician than Coakley. She hated all of the meet and greets, and Brown worked really hard to get elected. He just wanted it more. If Obama's plans go down the tubes it's not because of Brown, or any Republican. It will be because he doesn't follow through with the commitment he has shown so far.
Reply to this
Just to go over the obvious again - not only did Obama not deliver the senate seat in Mass, he didn't help the gubernatorial candidates in VA or NJ. He got punked in Copenhagen twice. The last time he delivered on a campaign promise was the stimulus and that has been a bust. No health care reform, no banking reform, no gay rights, no immigration reform, no education reform, no jobs and an economy still on life support. Maybe the reason that his poll numbers are so low is because he's not very good at the whole running the country thing. It's one thing to get yourself elected. Once you get elected you need to produce results. Obama hasn't done jack.
Reply to this
The Repbilcans got lucky with Scott Brown. He is telegenic and eloquent in a homey sort of way. The Dems didn't take him seriously and they paid the price. I expect they will learn from that lesson. Before the Republicans can start claiming victory they need to come up with an actual message beyond "stop Obama". They need some ideas and they need to educate people in those ideas. You can win an election or two on voter anger, but if you don't do well once elected, the anger gets directed at you the next time. Obama is finding that out.
Reply to this
The ideas are out there, but no one is expressing them very well. There were alternate proposals offered on health care, energy, education - just about everything. The current leadership is weak and uninspiring. Michael Steele is a joke. John Boehner does what he can but we need to shake people up with someone who can carry the message in a way that inspires people. The only one doing that right now is Sarah Palin, and she's just not being taken seriously. We have a message - we need a messenger. A new Newt (since the old one went crazy).
Reply to this
I dunno. People are pretty angry at Obama right now, and not just Republicans or conservatives. The independents are abandoning him in droves. The ultra libs are not happy with him either. It looked like Pelosi was ready to bite his head off in the news conference on Wednesday. Reid fell on his sword for the big "O" and is going to get paid back Daschle style. It's hard to come up with any group standing with him right now outside of his family or non-taxpayers. He's got to be looking at this and figuring out a plan B. Otherwise I think he is toast.
Reply to this
Did you see Jon Stewart go off on Keith Olberman tonite? Raked him over the coals about him going way over the top about Brown the other day. He cut Obama a new one on not doing anything since taking office too. Adding to the list - Gitmo is still open.
Reply to this
Hey, we can all pile on, doesn't make it right. Obama has screwed up, congress has screwed up and the people are getting tired of it. Time for these losers to get their act together and do something right for the country. Seems like that means everyone signing on that it's a good idea. Party line votes are not a good idea. It needs to ba all of us in this together. Let's take the anger and make it productive.
Reply to this
Well there's one big difference between Obama, Clinton and Carter. Clinton and Carter actually accomplished something in their first year. Both of them did wildly unpopular things, but they got stuff done. Obama hasn't accomplished anything. Even the stimulus wasn't his - it was the whole government in a panic doing what it does best - throwing our money at the problem. This country has wasted a year on a rookie who isn't panning out.
Reply to this
I'm disappointed with Obama so far, but I still have hope that he can pull it together. He's made a lot of unnecessary mistakes in the first year, and he has a steep learning curve. I guess that there's something to be said for having some experience. Obama was elected more on hope than on credentials. Sometimes hope isn't enough.
Reply to this
What a shame the Republicans are leaderless - it would be nice to have someone to look to in 2012. It's not going to be Brown - even he's smart enough to know that it takes more than 1 term as senator to make a president.
Reply to this
Well, we have 2 years for that leader to emerge, and I expect that we will know him (or her) when he shows up. Sarah has the spark, but we need the gravitas too. I expect that by early 2011, we'll know who it is. It won't be any of the last crop of losers. It won't be Mitt. We're onto next generation.
Reply to this
You know, the last two Republicans were no prize either. The Bush boys are a mixed bag. George the first presided over the end of the cold war and the collapse of the Soviet Union, but he ignored what was going on at home. It was the S&L crisis that was setting up in his administration. Then he won the Gulf War but left Saddam in charge, which set up gulf war 2. Oh, yeah, and he was the guy who decided that the mujahadeen weren't worth keeping as friends, which gave us the Taliban and Osama bin Laden. He was a washout. Bush Jr. did better on keeping us safe and cleaning up daddy's messes, but he ran us so far into debt that we'll be paying it off for years. He screwed the pooch in Iraq wasting almost 5 years on a bad strategy. He ignored Afghanistan so that the situation we are in now exists. He totally abandoned fiscal conservatism. The only reason he got a second term was that the Kerry / Edwards ticket was so unbelievably inept and out of touch, people felt safer holding onto Bush. Speaking of inept and out of touch, that sums up McCain. I don't know who the Republican poster boy will be, but he needs to be better than we've been seeing. A lot better.
Reply to this
Most presidents are mediocre at best. It's why we remember the great ones. My guess is that 9 out of 10 people out in the general public can't name half of them. That would be 22. Who history judges as a great president is who we remember. Eisenhower is remembered as a great general, but an average president. Lincoln was a pretty unsuccessful politician, but turned out to be one of our greatest presidents. We look for a great president to step forward because the times are scary, but it's not the single person who is the president who saves us or dooms us. We, as a nation, choose our destiny. We can rewrite the choice at every election. When we get a great president it's as much about luck, as a leader stepping forward. That's how the founding fathers designed the government. It "by the people, of the people and for the people" so that the people can retain control. It's when we abandon that control that things fall apart.
Reply to this
I think you're counting Obama out way too soon. It's his first year, and yeah, he got bruised up a bit. My guess is that he has plenty of street fighter in him and will come back with a vengeance. Everyone gets thumped a few times in their first year - it's a hard job.
Reply to this
It's sort of discouraging to see the republicans gloating over this as if it were some huge loss. The Democrats still have 59 votes in the senate and a strong majority in the house. It's not like they can't get the job done.
Reply to this
And yet they don't. They don't because the party is way left of the average American. The Blue Dogs want to get themselves re-elected, and the super libs come from super lib districts. That's why the senate is more sane. It's not some small number that they represent, but the whole state. A senator can't appeal to narrow interests and hope to win. Reid is going to find that out. It's a shame that the wackadoos from Frisco get so much enjoyment watching Pelosi do wheelies on her broom. At least we can get her out of the Speaker's job.
Reply to this
Obama is living the old saying that the trouble with being put up on a pedestal is that it's so easy to fall off.
Reply to this
Todays news was no health care and all jobs. O was focused on refocusing. Looks like he might be waking up and smalling the coffee. We can hope for change from theis Administration.
Reply to this
Well, if his stimmulus plan is any example of Obama's ability to pull back from the brink, I don't give him much hope. He could have just burned a few Huge piles of money for all the good it did for Main St. Of course that would have contributed to global warming. How much better to just give it too the bankers and the poor. Creating jobs is just too tough.
Reply to this
I've gotta second that - been hanging on by a thread since before the election. In that time my family has been going from comfortable middle class to fighting off poverty and losing our home. The sorriest thing I ever did was hote for hope and change. I'll know better the next time.
Reply to this
These problems were building for years, it's not like they are going to get fixed overnight. Obama has only been in office for a year. Most presidents look a little foolish at this point in their term. Let's see what year two holds. There can be no judgement on his presidency until after he's out of office.
Reply to this
I don't know - a failure to get re-elected would really look like a judgment of his presidency. He said today that he'd rather do whats right and serve one term than to not do the right thing and serve two. He may get that wish.
Reply to this
Does anyone else think that Health Care Reform should start with the Pharmaceutical companies? The reason everyone needs insurance is because the cost of drugs is to high. You guys should research the cost of the active ingredients in some of these drugs the mark-up is insane. I think if we could bring the cost of medical care down, we could do away with insurance altogether
Reply to this
That's a good point Brad. They claim the costs are to recoup research dollars, but they research because money is to be made. I remember back in the 70 and early 80s before the HMO idea took root. All you had for insurance was "major medical" or "hospitalization". Office visits were cash, prescriptions were cash. You could see your doctor anytime you wanted with no referral. Seems we should be looking at ideas that point back in that direction.
Reply to this
Well, we got our answer. Big O scolding the Supreme Court to their face, publicly squabbling with his generals over gays in the military, and dressing down the republicans for defending the country from a huge power grab at personal liberty. Can't show your colors any more plainly than that. Hope he enjoys the trip down.
Reply to this
I was kind of disappointed. I'll fight for this, and I'll fight for that. I thought this was a we thing. And he can fight all he wants, but there still isn't a plan. Health care trashed. Caving on nuclear energy and drilling for oil. Blaming the Republicans because the Democrats cant do anything while they had 60 votes, and now they have 59. Whining and caving was all I saw. I wish we went for Hillary. Maybe that's why she wasn't there last night. Why remind people of what could have been?
Reply to this
I'm over in London now, and the reaction to Obama's state of the Union address is less than enthusiastic. Health care and jobs needed coverage, but the Brits are a little put off with no mention of Afghanistan except that he's pulling out in 2011. Nothing at all on terrorism and just a finger wag at Iran. I think the aveage Brit was looking for a thank you or at least acknowledgement of the sacrifice that their soldiers are making on America's behalf. They see it as another slap in the face. What used to be a special relationship is now seen to be an abusive one, where America uses Great Britain as a doormat. Obama isn't much liked here, and he's even less respected. As far as GB is concerned, Obama has already fallen off the precipice.
Reply to this
Obama did not win on his ideas - he won because he gave a good speech and made people feel hopeful. Now that he's in office, America is having a case of buyers remorse. Being a novelty act is no better qualification for being president than getting shot down over Vietnam. Time to get some qualified talent.
Reply to this