The Obama Dilemma
It was a mere seven days ago, that we commented that the wheels were coming off of the Straight Talk Express, and John McCain needed to go back to what he does best to get his campaign going again. While we can't claim any direct credit, it seems that Senator McCain, with the help of Veep pick Gov. Palin, has gotten his voice back, and according to the polling numbers has admirably righted his run for the White House. He appears to have his base locked up, and is reaching out to the Independents and Reagan Democrats and doing well. In many ways he is outperforming his rival, Senator Obama, in competing for these non-aligned voters.
This seems to have caught the Obama campaign off-guard. That same sense of scrambling to get some traction that plagued McCain pre-convention, now is becoming apparent on the Democratic side. In much the same way that McCain seemed puzzled that the mainstream media would turn on him, Obama seems puzzled by the new interest and energy displayed at each new Republican rally. And puzzled that McCain / Palin is an energizing and unifying ticket for the Republican Party. And puzzled that the poll gap is narrowing and in some cases, McCain has pulled ahead. All of this puzzlement, and the Obama campaign reaction of late, speaks of some disarray in meeting these challenges in an effective way. Obama said it himself in puzzled amazement - McCain had become a plausible candidate for change.
In the spirit that we put together the piece outlining what was working and not working in the McCain campaign - we would like to offer our observations on the Obama campaign. This in now way constitutes an endorsement. It is intended only as a mirror for the Obama campaign to look into and maybe fix it's lipstick...
The obvious, glaring issue is experience and gravitas. Senator McCain has these both in amounts that seem steroid-laden. Senator Obama has this when in front of a teleprompter giving a prepared speech. Senator Obama, giving a speech, is a quite believable President Obama. Soaring rhetoric and a preacher's inspirational tone are gifts that Obama has that McCain does not. However, speechmaking is only the smallest part of being President.
Senator McCain may not rock the house with a speech, but in a press conference, or town hall meeting, he is quick on his feet and in command of the facts, or at the very least, the message for the day. Senator Obama, in contrast, often seems either unprepared or indecisive. Nuance is appreciated as a quality in a President, but not when carried to Jimmy Carter-like levels. It would serve Senator Obama well to have some answers to things he truly believes memorized and ready for instant delivery when asked, rather than have him seem to endlessly think about an answer when confronted with a question.
Gravitas and experience is also in question with regard to Senator Obama's resume. Without a long record of accomplishment (which, again, Senator McCain has in overabundance...), simply calling for change and saying you can deliver it is not sufficient. It reminds one of a ten-year old child, all excited, going on and on about "wouldn't it be great if?". It would be "great if"... but it's not - and it adds to both the impression of naiveté of the candidate, or of condescension to the electorate (which is the basis for the elitist charges that have come Obama's way).
It would be to the Senator's advantage to point to specific accomplishments of his legislative or pre-legislative career that illustrate how he has addressed issues in the past. This would then give some basis to the voters to judge what can realistically be expected from Senator Obama if he is elected to the Presidency.
There is a good bit of reference to this on the Obama website, but as the Senator is fond of pointing out - the average American is too pressed with his own problems to spend hours poring over information on the internet. These accomplishments should be part of Obama's speeches, and talking points in his press conferences and town hall meetings.
Still on gravitas, it's okay to joke and to be "one of the guys" - if the candidate has a natural talent for it - JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton all were masters. Senator Obama sometimes nails it, but oftentimes, misses the mark and again, comes off as condescending, naive or out of his element - none of these are positive impressions. Pointing out that he wants to go to questioners 'boy-girl-boy-girl" at town hall meetings is not Presidential. Being funny can be learned - Hillary proved that; but if it doesn't come naturally, practice is in order.
As the final gravitas point, this is politics - it's a rough game at best and vicious at it's worst. Not answering charges leveled against him torpedoed John Kerry's campaign in 2004. Starting a new website to debunk every charge, and making a harsh statement about every 527 communication that comes out, speaks to toughness. As Dennis Miller observed "I don't care about the color of Obama's skin - it's the thinness of it that bothers me." It would be strategically profitable for Senator Obama to pick his battles here - defending one's self and record is necessary, but if defending one's self is the primary focus of the campaign, the positive message that the Senator hopes to promote will get lost.
Promotion of the positive message is Senator's Obama's best hope. There are issues, such as Education and Urban Issues that he owns - lock, stock and barrel. His positions are thought out, complete, and practical. He is on an Education offensive this week and making good progress on an issue of importance to the electorate, and that McCain is late to the table with. The Senator needs to find more of these issues that are a natural advantage to him through his experience, and own those issues like McCain owns energy and national security.
As with Senator McCain, Senator Obama needs to play to his strengths, and apply those strengths to his weaknesses. Running for President is hard work - being President is harder.
RLB
This seems to have caught the Obama campaign off-guard. That same sense of scrambling to get some traction that plagued McCain pre-convention, now is becoming apparent on the Democratic side. In much the same way that McCain seemed puzzled that the mainstream media would turn on him, Obama seems puzzled by the new interest and energy displayed at each new Republican rally. And puzzled that McCain / Palin is an energizing and unifying ticket for the Republican Party. And puzzled that the poll gap is narrowing and in some cases, McCain has pulled ahead. All of this puzzlement, and the Obama campaign reaction of late, speaks of some disarray in meeting these challenges in an effective way. Obama said it himself in puzzled amazement - McCain had become a plausible candidate for change.
In the spirit that we put together the piece outlining what was working and not working in the McCain campaign - we would like to offer our observations on the Obama campaign. This in now way constitutes an endorsement. It is intended only as a mirror for the Obama campaign to look into and maybe fix it's lipstick...
The obvious, glaring issue is experience and gravitas. Senator McCain has these both in amounts that seem steroid-laden. Senator Obama has this when in front of a teleprompter giving a prepared speech. Senator Obama, giving a speech, is a quite believable President Obama. Soaring rhetoric and a preacher's inspirational tone are gifts that Obama has that McCain does not. However, speechmaking is only the smallest part of being President.
Senator McCain may not rock the house with a speech, but in a press conference, or town hall meeting, he is quick on his feet and in command of the facts, or at the very least, the message for the day. Senator Obama, in contrast, often seems either unprepared or indecisive. Nuance is appreciated as a quality in a President, but not when carried to Jimmy Carter-like levels. It would serve Senator Obama well to have some answers to things he truly believes memorized and ready for instant delivery when asked, rather than have him seem to endlessly think about an answer when confronted with a question.
Gravitas and experience is also in question with regard to Senator Obama's resume. Without a long record of accomplishment (which, again, Senator McCain has in overabundance...), simply calling for change and saying you can deliver it is not sufficient. It reminds one of a ten-year old child, all excited, going on and on about "wouldn't it be great if?". It would be "great if"... but it's not - and it adds to both the impression of naiveté of the candidate, or of condescension to the electorate (which is the basis for the elitist charges that have come Obama's way).
It would be to the Senator's advantage to point to specific accomplishments of his legislative or pre-legislative career that illustrate how he has addressed issues in the past. This would then give some basis to the voters to judge what can realistically be expected from Senator Obama if he is elected to the Presidency.
There is a good bit of reference to this on the Obama website, but as the Senator is fond of pointing out - the average American is too pressed with his own problems to spend hours poring over information on the internet. These accomplishments should be part of Obama's speeches, and talking points in his press conferences and town hall meetings.
Still on gravitas, it's okay to joke and to be "one of the guys" - if the candidate has a natural talent for it - JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton all were masters. Senator Obama sometimes nails it, but oftentimes, misses the mark and again, comes off as condescending, naive or out of his element - none of these are positive impressions. Pointing out that he wants to go to questioners 'boy-girl-boy-girl" at town hall meetings is not Presidential. Being funny can be learned - Hillary proved that; but if it doesn't come naturally, practice is in order.
As the final gravitas point, this is politics - it's a rough game at best and vicious at it's worst. Not answering charges leveled against him torpedoed John Kerry's campaign in 2004. Starting a new website to debunk every charge, and making a harsh statement about every 527 communication that comes out, speaks to toughness. As Dennis Miller observed "I don't care about the color of Obama's skin - it's the thinness of it that bothers me." It would be strategically profitable for Senator Obama to pick his battles here - defending one's self and record is necessary, but if defending one's self is the primary focus of the campaign, the positive message that the Senator hopes to promote will get lost.
Promotion of the positive message is Senator's Obama's best hope. There are issues, such as Education and Urban Issues that he owns - lock, stock and barrel. His positions are thought out, complete, and practical. He is on an Education offensive this week and making good progress on an issue of importance to the electorate, and that McCain is late to the table with. The Senator needs to find more of these issues that are a natural advantage to him through his experience, and own those issues like McCain owns energy and national security.
As with Senator McCain, Senator Obama needs to play to his strengths, and apply those strengths to his weaknesses. Running for President is hard work - being President is harder.
RLB

Looks like Obama is a reader - he's looking a lot better this week - staying away from the pie in the sky, and speaking about his record. Now to sort through what's true and what isn't...
Reply to this
Did you see Obama in the first debate? - he was well prepared and didn't stumble at all - didn't even "um" and "ah" like usual. Looks like he's getting some polish at answering questions - finally.
Reply to this
I Did see Obama, and McCain, and they were both articulate, well-spoken and entirely "on message" all night. There were few punches thrown, fewer counter-punches, and I thought Jim Lehrer was going to go grazy trying to get the candidates to engage one another. I don't think any minds were changed - all I got out of it was that the Dems have figured out how to stay on the talking points as well as the Republicans.
Reply to this